|
|
October 2008 - Posts
-
On October 21, I gave the luncheon address on the third day of the annual Money Laundering Enforcement Conference co-sponsored by the American Bankers Association and the American Bar Association, one of the most widely attended annual banking conferences in the U.S. I discussed the history of this website; some of the Contributing Experts' accomplishments in addressing money laundering and terrorist financing issues; and my personal assessment of the status of counter-terrorist financing efforts. I discussed the merits of the recent proposal by the American Bankers Association for Bank Secrecy Act reform, which I discussed here on October 16. I announced and discussed a parallel effort by several of us here and top officials from major financial institutions to propose counter-terrorist financing measures to the next Administration and Congress. I concluded my remarks with a perspective on shariah finance vehicles. Since October 21, I have added to the suggested list of potential measures for consideration next year. You can download the full text here, and my suggestions for counter-terrorism measures are below. I welcome readers' comments.
I appreciate the opportunity to address the twin ABAs, and I especially thank Rick Small of American Express, whose outstanding work I have admired for years, and John Byrne of Bank of America, one of the most respected experts in the entire field, for extending the invitation.
|
-
Yesterday, the Asad regime organized a mass protest in response to Sunday’s US cross-border raid into Syria targeting a high value Al Qaida figure. The Syrian Government continues to protest the incident. Meanwhile, the US has shuttered the embassy in Damascus based on security concerns.
Five years after the US invasion of Iraq, the US raid in Syria highlights the ongoing problem of Syrian support for Al Qaida. Although numbers of insurgents entering Iraq from Syria have diminished of late—a development related to both modest measures taken by Damascus and the inhospitable environment generated by the Sahwa on the Iraqi side of the border—Syrian Government efforts to stem the flow remain deficient.
I published an article in the Weekly Standard online about Syria and Al Qaida this morning.
In other news, on 16 October, the United Nations issued its 8th semi-annual report on the implementation of UNSCR 1559. Among other points, the report highlighted the continued “porosity” of the Syrian-Lebanese borders that makes it easily penetrable. It cited growing concerns that “weapons and [Al Qaida] fighters continue to flow across the Syrian-Lebanese border.”
In a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, Syrian Ambassador to the UN Bashar al Jaafri issued a perfunctory denial of the reports’ findings, and—surprise, surprise—dismissed the information underpinning the UN report as supplied by Israel.
|
-
Over the past seven months I have been interacting with US Homeland Security and European defense officials and experts on a the potential next threat to the West, more particularly against mainland America. The signature of that strategic menace is EMP: Electro Magnetic Pulse; a weapon of the future, already available in design, construction and possible deployment. As eyes are focused on the Iranian nuclear threat, and as we began recently to understand that the missile advances are as important then the fissile material development, attention is now being drawn by private sector projects and some in the defense world to what can cause a wider circle of damages and thus more deterrence against US national security.
In short, and I borrow from the Project "Shield America.org," an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack could be triggered by a nuclear warhead detonated at high altitude over America. The resulting blast would create an EMP, a shockwave that could "cripple military and civilian communications, power, transportation, water, food, and other infrastructure." Even if a high-altitude EMP kills nobody at first, it would paralyze a large section of the United States. The lingering practical and economic effects would take anywhere from hours to years to resolve: when secondary effects are considered, an EMP could be even deadlier than a direct nuclear strike against the mainland. Indeed, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett has written: "Where the terrorist airliner attacks of 9/11 killed thousands, a terrorist EMP attack could indirectly kill millions and conceivably cause the permanent collapse of our entire society."
By realizing how fundamental and irreversible is the reliance of the United States on electronics for every aspect of its citizens' lives, we can also realize how this makes the U.S. vulnerable to an emerging threat.
Which brings about the issue of identifying the origination point of such a menace. Many indicators direct us to Iran. In previous articles on CTB and other outlets I have focused on the "missiles threat" as a dossier by itself independently from the "Nuclear" file for a rational consideration: Missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons, but also "other weapons" including chemical and biological. In the case of Hezbollah's mini war of July 2006 with Israel, large rockets and small missiles were conceived as classical but were strategically aimed at chemical sites as well. Hence the missile threat is diverse. In the case of the EMP weapon system, we need to look at Iran's missiles capability also from the perspective of delivering a blow, not just to Israel or US and Western targets in the region, but also across large bodies of water.
Geopolitical projections, including developments which may take place in Iraq and Afghanistan, tell us that Iran may find itself free from constraints to equip itself with long range missiles able to reach US mainland at some point in the near future, not only from mainland Iran, but also from other locations closer to America, including at the hands of terrorist forces.
As a result of these geopolitical consideration I believe it is pressing for the defense and counter terrorism community to increase the level of efforts in this emerging field of threat and begin a public awareness campaign to educate citizens in this regard.
I would like to draw the attention of our readers to a recently developed project in the private sector, (www.shieldamerica.org) as a platform for discussion and analysis.
Dr Walid Phares is the Director of Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
|
-
The October issue of the CTC Sentinel, published by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, includes an article which I co-authored with Dr. William Rosenau, a political scientist at RAND and adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. The following is an excerpt, and you can read the entire article starting on page 15 of the Sentinel.
----------
Although Jama`at al-Fuqara’ (JF) is virtually unknown to the general public, the group has periodically generated concern within U.S. intelligence and law enforcement circles. A Muslim sect with a long criminal past and extensive international connections, including ties to Pakistan’s political and religious fringes, JF’s activities have received heightened official and media scrutiny since 9/11. The organization has been described as a “terrorist outfit” with extensive links to al-Qa`ida; as “one of the most elusive terrorist groups resident in the U.S.”; and as “perhaps the most dangerous fundamentalist sect operating in the United States.” In 1999, the U.S. Department of State categorized JF as a “terrorist group,” and more recently, in his important CTC Sentinel article on the organization, terrorism analyst Christopher Heffelfinger categorized JF as “a high risk for U.S. security.” (NOTE: It should be noted, however, that the State Department dropped JF from subsequent editions of “Patterns of Global Terrorism.” Moreover, the secretary of state has never designated JF as a “foreign terrorist organization,” which unlike the “terrorist group” appellation carries with it a variety of criminal sanctions.) This article will offer some additional perspective on JF, or as the organization prefers to call itself, Muslims of the Americas (MOA)... In addition, the article will touch on the relatively unexplored subject of group leader Shaykh Mubarak Ali Gilani’s activities in Pakistan, drawing on interviews conducted by one of the authors in that country in the spring and summer of 2008.
The organization maintains an estimated 20-30 compounds (known as jama`ats), primarily in the northeastern, mid-Atlantic, and southeastern regions of the United States. Compounds also reportedly exist in Canada, and in Trinidad and Tobago and other countries in the Caribbean basin, an important region for JF/MOA proselytizing. A jama`at can house as many as 300 members, according to one source. The percentage of JF/MOA’s overall membership (estimated at 1,000-3,000) that lives in these compounds is unknown. The camps are physically isolated and not particularly welcoming to outsiders. Members of the Red House, Virginia jama`at have been convicted of a variety of weapons-related offenses, and reports of gunfire and “military-style training” at the Islamberg compound in remote Tompkins, New York have drawn the attention of local authorities.
JF/MOA’s long history of criminality, and its apparent role as Gilani’s North American “back office,” makes the group a proper subject for official interest and attention. It is unlikely, however, that JF/MOA will become a terrorist threat, or serve as a U.S. platform for al-Qa`ida, as some sources have alleged. Heightened scrutiny of JF/MOA since 9/11 makes it an improbable operating partner for al-Qa`ida. Moreover, as Heffelfinger observed, Gilani and Bin Ladin are best understood as rivals rather than as confederates. In addition, Gilani’s attention has always been directed principally at Pakistan and Kashmir, with North America serving merely as a financial means to an end. To the extent that U.S. national security policy aims to cut off funding for armed groups such as the ones that operate in Kashmir, and to the extent that JF/MOA is helping to fund those groups via Gilani, the organization poses a counter-terrorism challenge. Within the United States, however, JF/MOA should be framed in law enforcement rather than counter-terrorism terms. For American Muslims, the challenge will be to help the group (or, perhaps, individual members) move away from the wilder shores of extremism that have been fostered by isolation.
|
-
Over the last 22 years there have been many speculations over how Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi managed to escape the American bombing of his Bab al Aziziya compound on April 15th, 1986. The attack came after years of tensions between the two countries over Libya’s support of various terrorist outfits and was triggered by Tripoli’s alleged involvement in the April 5th, 1986, bombing of the La Belle club in West Berlin, which killed two American servicemen and a Turkish woman. Even though his 15-month-old adopted daughter Hanna was killed and two of his sons were injured, Gaddafi managed to escape the attack unharmed.
Former Italian Prime Minister Giulio Andreotti and current Libyan Foreign Minister Abdurrahman Shalgam have finally provided us with a good explanation for the escape. Speaking at a conference organized by the Italian Foreign Ministry, the two men stated that then Italian Prime Minister Bettino Craxi had forewarned Gaddafi of the attack. “Yes, that American attack was an improper initiative,” said Andreotti, “and I believe that Italy warned Libya about it.” Shalgam, at the time the Libyan ambassador to Italy, confirmed the story: “Craxi sent me a friend to tell me to watch out, that the 14th or the 15th of April there will be an American raid against Libya.” According to Shalgam, Craxi, who died in 2000, informed Libya “two days before the aggression, maybe the 11th or the 12th, he told us to be careful and that Italy would have not allowed overflight rights” to Americans to carry out the raid. Media reports in the past had also alleged that, on the night of April 15th, “then Maltese Prime Minister Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici phoned Gaddafi informing him that unauthorised planes were flying over Maltese air space, heading south towards Tripoli.”
|
-
Car bombs, strewn limbs, grimacing faces of survivors, mangled motor bikes, black smoke billowing from the grounds, all depicting an apocalyptic scenario in India’s northeastern state, Assam. In a most deadly r attack ever perpetrated in Assam, terrorist have triggered over 20 low and high intensity bomb blasts in four cities of Assam: Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Barapeta and Guwahati. Nearly 65 people have been killed and over 400 injured on Oct 30 morning blasts which were targeting crowded market places. The aim of the perpetrators was definitely a high fatality rate. The explosions occurred in a span of 20 minutes leaving a trail of death and destruction. In most of the blasts military grade RDX and ammonium nitrate were used. Following the blasts, the fuels in nearby vehicles acted as incendiary which helped in triggering conflagration in the adjacent establishments, making it difficult for rescue workers. Also the plight of rescue workers increased with mobs took to the streets and attacked the first responders.
There is hardly doubt about a gross intelligence failure. Now the Assam government is blaming the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) for these ghastly acts. Also it won’t be farfetched for them to believe that these terror attacks could be linked with the recent communal clashes between Bodo and Muslim community in different parts of the state (esp.in Udalguri and Darrang ) early this month. Today’s attack came after the recent violence between Bodo and Muslim community in the state.
Even though the ULFA denied reports of its hand in these blasts, needle of suspicions pointed towards ULFA and Bangladesh based HUJI. Both are active in the region and with cross border affiliations. In mid October the Guwahati based civil society group Assam Public Works (APW), indicated that the State is going the J&K way and claimed that there are over 50,000 Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and HUJI cadres active in Assam. The APW has threatening details: the SIMI and HUJI cadre strength at Dhubri is 4000, Goalpara with 8000, Barapeta with 3700, 4212 in Darrang, 3728 in Nagaon, 1850 in Guwahati, 3018 in Morigaon, 3280 in Karimganj, 1184 in Cachar, 6078 in Hailakandi, 2075 in Bongaigaon and 400 in Nalbari.
|
-
The identification of at least four slain Kerala based militants in Jammu and Kashmir early this month raises some vital questions about Islam and terrorism in India: What inspired Muslim youths of Kerala to fight for a cause alien to them and that to in a distant land? How far these Terror groups have penetrated into India’s hinterlands getting easy recruits for their subversive activities?
Mohammad Fayaz and Abdul Faiz of Kannur; and Muhammad Yasir of Kochi and Abdul Rahim of Malappuram who have joined Lashkar-e-Toiba ranks recently, were killed in the encounters in Lolab valley in Kupwara district of J&K. The slain militants were trying to sneak into Pakistan for training.
It is common knowledge now that Pakistan based and J&K centric terror groups like LeT, Hizbul Mujaheedin, and Jaish-e Muhammad have been trying to broad base their cadre strength by seeking recruits from various parts of the country especially from Uttar Pradesh, Hyderabad, Kerala, and Karnataka. The idea is to Indianize their (un)holy struggle with more Indian face. These groups always use the above mentioned places as hibernation ground or hiding place. In CTB, we discussed about this trend, especially the militancy situation in Kerala and how the territory has been used as a hibernation place for militants. Remember how the Kerala units of Hizbul Mujaheedin issued a letter threatening to blow up the Kerala Assembly House ‘to avenge the arrest’ of one Hizbul cadre in Idukki district of Kerala!
The State is also an active playground for the outlawed Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI)/Indian Mujaheedin cadres. Recently, on Oct 06, two suspected Students Islamic Movement of India cadres Abdul Hakeem and Shameer were arrested from Thrissur. Both have reportedly attended a secret SIMI camp at Panayikulam, Kochi in mid 2006. Again in 2007, a similar clandestine SIMI camp was organized at Wagamon.
Kerala State police succeeded in apprehending one Faisal on Oct 25 who recruited several youths and brainwashed them to fight and die for Islam and for so called ‘Muslim Land’. According to his confessions, as many as 300 youths (mostly with criminal records) from Kerala have been recruited by various terrorist groups; the recruited youths have undergone initial indoctrinations in Hyderabad (India) and Bangalore and then traveled to Pakistan for further training.
Now the State police along with other intelligence agencies have initiated a three dimensional investigation: 1)suspected role of reformist/revivalist organizations (particularly Ahle Hadith and Tablighi Jamaat) in the indoctrination process, 2)the role of pro-Muslim regional political parties and their student bodies; and last but not the least, 3) the role of Kashmir trader networks in the State. There are cases in India in the past where Islamists highlight the sufferings of Muslims in Kashmir, Chechnya and elsewhere to get Muslim youths to avenge the alleged ill treatment. If this was the reason for Kerala youths to reach Kashmir at the behest of ISI/LeT, then a dangerous trend is brewing in India and the days are not far when these inspired ‘recruits’ would join Al Qaeda or like minded outfits and seen fighting in Afghanistan or Iraq.
|
-
In my opinion, the single most effective counter-measure that the U.S. government has taken against terrorist financing in the past three to four years was to integrate counter-terrorist financing theory and techniques into the worldwide counterinsurgency efforts of the Pentagon, especially in Iraq. This website was the first to report the establishment of the joint Defense Department - Treasury Department "threat finance cells" in Iraq, which successfully interrupted terrorists' funding flows. The concept is inexpensive and simple in concept: Treasury Department personnel trained in banking operations and in recognizing money laundering and terrorist financing techniques work side by side with military personnel to identify the sources and methods of a given terrorist cell in a selected area. I expect Gen. Petraeus to expand the concept into Afghanistan after he takes over CENTCOM on Friday.
Knowledgeable Treasury personnel can also be located in embassies in countries in which terrorist groups have an expanding presence but in which there are no U.S. military operations. So Doug Farah's post about the presence of Hezbollah in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America leads me to this recommendation: the State and Treasury Department appropriations bills for FY 2009, which have not been passed in final form by the Congress, should include sufficient funds to establish jointly operated State-Treasury threat finance cells to monitor Hezbollah wherever they operate. Wherever they go, we should be, to identify their fundraising methods and level of investments, and to develop appropriate counter-measures. The FY 2010 Defense appropriations bill should then include funding for threat finance cell operations worldwide. If fully funded and quickly established with capable personnel, these joint operations will provide actionable intelligence on Hezbollah's personnel, activities, and international communications structure.
|
-
Whoever wins the presidency next week will face a series of international challenges from non-state actors that are being little discussed on the campaign trail and largely ignored by the media in the run up to the presidential vote. It is too bad, as the next president will likely have to spend as much time on these issues as he does the economy.
The most neglected of the stories, it seems to me, given the enormous impact it has on not just a continent (Africa) but on global trade, is Somalia. The Islamists have scored a number of significant victories there, and only belatedly has the international community responded to the growing pirate threat that provides the Islamists and others a vital economic lifeline.
Another is the traceable spread of Hezbollah, both in sub-Saharan Africa and in Latin America. This quasi-state actor has made significant inroads in Venezuela, Panama and the Tri-Border Area, and is clearly not establishing themselves in these locations to go on vacation. One has to ask oneself what the purpose of such large investments in infrastructure and personnel is?
This, taken with the growing presence of Iran, Hezbollah's principal state sponsor, has only one goal, given the absence of historic or cultural ties or of a significant diaspora that would merit interest. And that is to position a veteran Islamist fighting force to attack the United States and its allies in the region should such an action be deemed necessary by Hezbollah, Iran, or other interlocutors. My full blog is here.
|
-
A recent Homeland Security initiative is the introduction of the Transport Workers Identification Credential (“TWIC”). For many years, security experts have cited the nation’s ports as a key vulnerability. The TWIC program is designed to address this by controlling access to commercial port facilities. The program provides for a biometric identification card to be issued to everyone who has to have access to port facilities. This includes, truck drivers, stevedores, longshoremen and ship’s crews. Persons holding Coast Guard issued licenses are also required to obtain a TWIC. Sailing is a passion of mine. As a way of improving and documenting my navigational skills I have obtained a Coast Guard Master’s license. Thus is came to pass that one morning I found myself queued up with a group of truck drivers and stevedores to apply for my TWIC card.
The biometric feature of the card intrigued me. Based on the TSA’s description of the program, I didn’t know whether to expect DNA samples, retina scans, or something else. It turns out to be a picture and fingerprints. A little disappointing perhaps for the high tech aficionado, but the card is interesting in that the picture and fingerprint data is captured on a digital chip imbedded in the card itself. Presumably this allows a suitably equipped security guard to actually compare the fingerprints of the person resenting the card with the prints recorded in the chip. This would be more reliable that a picture comparison, and much harder to falsify. Links with the central database would pretty much preclude forgery entirely.
|
-
Earlier this month, the Department of Justice published the revised Attorney General Guidelines (AGG), which govern all FBI activities. This includes FBI activity involving international terrorism. The revised AGG, which will come into effect in early December 2008, will consolidate procedures controlling the FBI's various investigative programs.
Michael Rolince, a senior associate at Booz Allen Hamilton and a former FBI agent, argues in this piece that the revision of the AGG is a necessary and pivotal step for the FBI's counterterrorism investigations.
His full analysis is available here: www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2951
|
-
After a Sunday broad daylight strike inside Syria, questions remain about the special operations mission’s success. As we reported in today’s New york Daily News, the operation a few miles inside Syria’s border from neighboring Iraq resulted in the killing of Abu Ghadiyah, an Al Qaeda in Iraq senior facilitator from a well-known family of smugglers in Iraq’s Al Anbar province.
Wire service reports also suggest the American operators may have snatched two individuals after killing Ghadiyah and seven others in a farmhouse and adjacent tent near a Syrian village. But it’s still unclear who the prisoners are - or their significance to AQI, if any.
“Ghadiyah was one of the leading - if not the leading and most prominent - facilitators moving foreign fighters across the border” from Syria to Iraq, a U.S. intelligence official told me yesterday. “The removal of this individual would be a plus.”
Iraqi-born security scholar Nimrod Raphaeli told me that Syria’s internal security service, the Mukhabarat, is complicit in ensuring the border remains porous for AQI. “No one enters Iraq across the border without the Mukhabarat knowing about it,” Raphaeli says.
Syria’s protests over the U.S. incursion “just aren’t credible,” he adds.
The operation likely was carried out by the Joint Special Operations Command, intelligence officials said, whose elite counterterror commandos are drawn from the Army’s Delta Force and Navy SEALs’ Development Group.
As I recently blogged, the SEALs’ “DEVGRU” lost three members somewhere in Afghanistan between August 30 and September 11. A fascinating, detailed and clearly well-sourced report in Air Force Times last month explained that a CIA-led offensive inside Pakistan’s tribal areas targeting Al Qaeda and Taliban leadership - namely Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Siraj - has been partly curtailed after diplomatic backlash stemming from a September JSOC cross-border raid.
While almost 20 missile attacks by unmanned drones have occurred in Waziristan since August, ground incursions were largely halted after Pakistan threatened to shoot down American choppers. Intelligence officials say there has been little blowback from the missile strikes, however, since the targets have been foreign Arabs and Afghan Taliban.
No bigshot leaders have been killed in the ongoing airstrikes, but one U.S. official said: “If you’re a soldier on the ground in Afghanistan, the mid-level insurgent leader we killed in a missile strike in Waziristan is a real big deal to you.”
|
-
Syria is one of the most difficult countries to read, especially when the man in charge president Bashir al Assad is sending different signals to different countries.
I just wrote a piece for the Middle East Times on that topic.
You can read the full article here.
Here is an excerpt:
Time is running out for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He will have to decide in the next few weeks whether his overture to the West is genuine or not. To Assad's credit a slew of events are pointing to his good faith, but he is still afraid to totally break loose from Iran's grip. Whatever decision the Syrian president makes will have a great impact on the region.
Assad has been opening to both the European Union and Israel. But Syria's main prize would be to get a clear relationship with Washington established. And it seems that after a long silence, Washington is more inclined to talk.
In fact, last week the Kuwaiti daily Al-Jarida reported that U.S. President George W. Bush apparently offered his Syrian counterpart to pressure Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights if Damascus promises to cut its ties with Tehran. Bush allegedly made this proposal in a letter recently presented to Assad by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during his visit to Damascus.
If Assad accepts the American deal, he will have to implement the agreement in the coming weeks. Time is of the essence since the Bush administration would like to ink such a deal before leaving office in January.
But what is really at the center of it all is the risk of the international tribunal to go ahead and try the culprits of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. In fact, the final report of Canadian judge and future prosecutor of the tribunal, Daniel Bellemare, should be published in Lebanon in December.
|
-
One of the signs of the internal decomposition of the Chávez government is the growing corruption and internal rot. Given my past experience in Africa, one of the most intriguing things that has gone missing over the past three years are Venezuela´s diamonds.
The latest report from Partnership Africa Canada, a leading group in combating the use of blood diamonds and monitoring the Kimberley Process (KP), documents how the relatively small but still lucrative trade in Venezuelan diamonds has gone rogue.
The KP was designed to monitor the path of diamond from mining to sale, to insure that only licit diamonds make it to the world market.
The report, which reviews the compliance of many nations, blasts Venezuela particularly harshly. Given the documented support of Chávez and senior members of his intelligence apparatus for both the FARC in Colombia and Hezbollah (and the close ties to Iran), the disappearance of 200,000 carats of diamonds of years is a risk.
This untraceable revenue stream could become even more important as oil prices continue to plummet, leaving the Chávez government with rapidly shrinking revenues. This, in turn means that the social expectations generated by his revolution will remain unmet.
Perhaps more importantly, Venezuela's ability to heavily subsidize oil to its allies in Cuba, Nicaragua and elsewhere, and the billions of money thrown around to spread Chávez's brand of socialism, is now sharply curtailed. My sources say Venezuela needs the price of oil to remain above $90 a barrel to pay of its current policies. My full blog is here.
|
-
 The Army’s 304th Military Intelligence Battalion recently produced a presentation entitled, “ al Qaida-Like Mobile Discussions & Potential Creative Uses”. The presentation has some interesting information regarding, ‘Pro Terrorist Propoganda Cell Phone Interfaces”, mobile phone target surveillance, “Voice Changers for Terrorist Telephone Calls” and finally, “Potential for Terrorist use of Twitter”. This last topic has received some commentary having been seized upon by Wired’s Danger Room Blog. As usual with discussions centered on the terrorist potential use of any new technology, negative comments focus on the, “ why don’t they just use the telephone” argument. However, this as ever misses the wider point.
Twitter has been around since July 2006 and is billed as a micro-blogging service with a social networking aspect - it is a highly fluid platform that can be meshed with a variety of other online tools. As with many innovations in this space its full utility is simply unknown - therefore, it is useful to speculate on both the potential negative and positive uses. As a society we now have a pretty good idea of how the telephone works.
The military intelligence report highlights three scenarios relating to how Twitter could be used - terrorist command and control, terrorist real-time targeting for suicide operations and pre-operational research on terrorist targets who use Twitter. Of these scenarios it is the latter that is so far potentially the most ‘negative’ use of Twitter. It is possible to produce an unnerving amount of information relating to specific Twitter users based on their social patterns and individual entries. As a rule of thumb it seems that it is never the primary functions of these platforms, which are the most revealing but their secondary and tertiary applications.
Twitter along with its competitor Jaiku continues to develop and as it does so will its impact on society. It is worth noting that the LA Fire Department is making good use of Twitter as a real-time incident information platform. Perhaps the terrorist use of Twitter will be the revival of alhesbah as a micro-blog sending ideological updates to followers as well as including LAFD style incident updates - I would add this as, potential use scenario 4.
|
-
The Los Angles Times opinion web side today carried a response I wrote to an op-ed last week that badly distorted the purpose of the State Department’s list of countries that support international terrorism.
That op-ed piece by a New York writer, Lionel Beeher, claimed that the formal designation list exists “solely to punish our enemies.” This is an absurd statement and reflects ignorance and distortion of what has often been a useful counterterrorism tool.
Having been involved in the creation of the list as a Congressional staff member and then in its implementation while serving in the State Department’s Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, I felt the op-ed required an effort to set the record straight. The following description and history of the list might be useful to others.
The LA Times apparently has a policy of not carrying in the print edition op-eds that respond to previously printed op-eds, but they agreed to carry a response in their online “Blowback” column they established for such responses. The text follows.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oew-kraft27-2008oct27,0,5462509.story
From the Los Angeles Times
Blowback
America's valuable terrorism list
The government's list of state sponsors of terrorism has been an important tool in making the world safer.
By Michael B. Kraft
October 27, 2008
The formal removal this month of North Korea from the State Department's list of terrorism-sponsoring nations has touched off some controversy. These criticisms reveal a basic misunderstanding of the concept of this formal designation.
Contrary to comments made by Lionel Beehner in his Oct. 20 Times Op-Ed article, "America’s useless terrorism list,” the so-called terrorism list does not exist "solely to punish our enemies" or to strong-arm countries on other issues. Such assertions are nonsense and show no understanding of the history or purpose of the terrorism list.
The original legislation that started the list was enacted nearly 30 years ago as an export control measure. Providing a comprehensive checklist of which countries are naughty or nice was not its aim.
The provision was intended to make sure that export licenses of equipment useful for military or terrorism-related purposes received close scrutiny and were routinely OKd by low-level State Department and Commerce Department licensing officials. The issue was touched off when members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee learned that these two departments had approved export licenses for the sale of 400 heavy-duty off-road trucks used to transport tanks to Libya and for six "civilian" versions of the C-130 military transport plane to Syria.
The bill's sponsor was the late Rep. Millicent Fenwick (R-N.J.), a new member of the House Middle East subcommittee (and widely believed to be the model of the Doonesbury cartoon character Lacy Davenport.) I was her national security legislative assistant when we learned in 1978 that some State Department officials were concerned that Libya might use the trucks in a possible confrontation with neighboring Egypt. Meanwhile, Lebanese-American constituents of the late Rep. Ed Derwinski (R-Ill.) objected to the proposed sale of the cargo planes to Syria, which had been shelling the Christian suburbs of Beirut.
Thus, with the committee staff, we drafted legislation that required the State Department to notify Congress 30 days before export licenses were issued for goods or services that would enhance the military or terrorism capabilities of a government that the secretary of State determined had repeatedly supported international terrorism. That provision of the Export Administration Act of 1979 quickly became known as the terrorism list. The advance notification procedure meant that the highest levels of the State Department would have to approve any proposed sale of such "dual use" equipment, and Congress could block the sales if it objected.
Subsequent amendments to foreign aid and other bills prohibited U.S. military or economic assistance to countries on the designated terrorism list, denied tax credits for income earned in such countries -- a measure to discourage U.S. investment -- and prohibited financial transactions between Americans and terrorism-list nations. The sanctions are not fool-proof, but the terrorism list has been an important tool in U.S. foreign policy. It played a role in persuading some countries, such as Syria, Libya and even Saddam Hussein's Iraq, to pull back from their direct involvement in and funding of terrorist activities. Syria, unfortunately, still provides sanctuary to terrorists.
Beehner asserts that the terrorism list ignores the need to work with our international allies to apply pressure and does not tackle "the socioeconomic causes of why terrorism takes root in the first place."
With all due respect, Beehner is wrong.
The U.S. sanctions have given Washington a greater ability to encourage our European and other allies to restrict their exports of sensitive equipment. The efforts have not succeeded fully -- some countries are more concerned about obtaining contracts than deterring terrorism. But there have been some successes, and, while I was in the State Department, we encouraged other nations to tighten their regulations over exports and funding transfers to terrorist groups. Countries that support terrorism do so because they see it as a tool of low-intensity warfare against other nations; take Iran's repeated involvement in attacks on the United States. Socioeconomic conditions in oil-rich Libya, Iran and Iraq had nothing to do with their regimes' support for terrorism.
Libya and North Korea negotiated for years to get off the list. Sudan and Syria have indicated an interest and have been involved in behind-the-scenes talks. (Cuba has shown no interest.) Libya and now North Korea have met the U.S. conditions for removal. Iraq, which was designated in 1990 after its invasion of Kuwait, was removed in 2004 after a new Iraqi government was formed. Listing a country as a state supporter of terrorism is not an end in itself; it is a tool to try to change that nation's behavior and make it think twice about supporting murderous attacks on noncombatants.
North Korea's status on the terrorism list became wrapped up in international efforts to get the Kim Jong Il regime to stand down from its nuclear weapons program. The nuclear issue may be stretching the initial intent of the terrorism list when was drafted 30 years ago. Still, certainly the possibility of nuclear terrorism is one of the more horrifying scenarios facing the world.
The economic measures imposed under the terrorist list and other sanctions regimes are an important part of the efforts to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons without the U.S. having to resort to military action. Throwing the list aside would not only be foolish, it would also be a reckless discarding of an important tool that should be strengthened, not abandoned.
Michael B. Kraft, a Washington- based counter-terrorism consultant and writer, is a former senior advisor in the State Department counter-terrorism office and co-author of "The Evolution of U.S. Counterterrorism Policy" (Greenwood Press).
|
-
This afternoon, as part of a Washington Institute lecture series with senior US counterterrorism officials, we hosted Mike Vickers, Assistant Secretary for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict at the Department of Defense.
Mr. Vickers offered his thoughts on the threat facing the US, as well as the strategy necessary to defeat the global terrorist networks -- focusing on the role of the military in this effort. Of particular interest, he explained how the Special Operations have expanded since 9/11, and how much more they will still grow this decade. In his view, this is a step in the right direction in bolstering not only the US, but our partners counterterrorism capabilities. Here is an excerpt from his talk:
"Special Operations Forces and our Special Operations command down in Tampa has been really one of the growth stocks of the Department of Defense during this decade. By the end of the decade or probably early in the next decade, our Special Operations Forces will essentially twice as large as they were at the beginning of the decade. They'll reach about sixty-four -- the mid sixty thousands in terms of total manpower. There will have been more than a doubling of Special Operations command budget. There will be a lot more -- there already is -- but there will be a lot more flag officers and general officers who come from a Special Operations background among our senior leadership.
"If you look at the operational core of our Special Operations Forces, and focus on the ground operators, there are some 15,000 or so of those -- give or take how you count them -- these range from our Army Special Forces or our Green Berets, our Rangers, our Seals, some classified units we have, and we recently added a Marine Corps Special Operations Command to this arsenal as well. In addition to adding the Marine component, each of these elements since 2006 and out to about 2012 or 2013 has been increasing their capacity as well as their capabilities, but their capacity by a third. This is the largest growth in Special Operations Force history. By the time we're done with that, there will be some things, some gaps we need to fix undoubtedly, but we will have the elements in place for what we believe is the Special Operations component of the global war on terrorism.
"Special Operations Forces, I think through this decade and into the next one, have been and will remain a decisive strategic instrument. We used the -- when trying to answer the question about what made Special Operations Forces special, we like to say that well, it was because of this tactical virtuosity or the skill of the individual operator that they were trained to such a high level. My counterpart, Admiral Olson, and I now like to talk about it that it really is the strategic employment or impact that these forces cumulatively have in this broad war that we find ourselves in that really is what's making them special. It's not so much the virtuosity, though that remains and is on display almost every day overseas."
To read the entire transcript from today's session, click here:
|
-
I have been traveling, but am somewhat surprised at how little attention the recent multi-country drug bust firmly tying Hezbollah to Latin American drug trafficking structures has received.
This is the clearest publicly-available case that shows how organized criminal groups and terrorist organizations are broadening and strengthening their links. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), responsible for several significant busts recently, led this one too.
The operation has been underway for several years, and has yielded a trove of information on Hezbollah's ties to the Lebanese diaspora in Latin America, and the money ring that stretches through Venezuela, Panama, Guatemala, Hong Kong, the United States, Europe and Lebanon. The size of the network, the ability to function across religious and ethnic lines, and ability of all groups to profit from the criminal enterprise should give one pause.
The profits from the sales of drugs went to finance Hezbollah," said Gladys Sanchez, lead investigator for the special prosecutor's office in Bogota, in an interview. "This is an example of how narco-trafficking is a theme of interest to all criminal organizations, the FARC, the paramilitaries and terrorists."
Ms. Sanchez is exactly right. My full blog is here.
|
-
As with most terrorist developments in Indonesia, there was good news mixed with bad regarding Tuesday’s arrests of five Islamic extremists in Jakarta and Bogor. First the good news:
• Just as was the case with the terrorist arrests in Palembang, South Sumatra, earlier this year, the authorities were apparently well aware of the presence of the Jakarta-based terrorists and were biding their time to identify further extremists before closing the net. It has been reported that the police had been keeping them under surveillance for several months, at least. This is comforting, as it appears like the authorities—and especially the police—have a better handle on the radical threat than most people give them credit.
• The exact ideological affiliation of the Jakarta/Bogor cell is still uncertain. One police source claimed that they may have been tied to Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), but this is increasingly becoming meaningless given the degree to which JI has atrophied. Other sources indicate that they were tied to Kompak, a Central Java-based group that dispatched jihadists to Central Sulawesi and the Malukus during the Habibie and Gus Dur administrations. Unlike JI, Kompak, though violent, does not have a history of attacking Western targets.
• The Jakarta/Bogor cell members were reportedly caught with some bullets, a few kilos of explosive material, and bomb-making manuals. But while these manuals might describe sophisticated circuitry, translating this into reality requires personnel with considerable training in electronics—something that JI (and Kompak, for that matter) probably lost when JI bomb-maker Dr. Azhari died in a November 2005 gun fight.
• Noordin Top, arguably the most anti-West of the JI remnants on the lam, is thought to be staying one step ahead of the law in rural Central Java. That he has not been caught is cause for concern. That said, it is highly unlikely that Top has had the luxury of recruiting martyrs and arranging the logistics for a major terrorist strike like those that took place between 2002-2005.
• Several of the terrorists arrested in recent years have not been intent on targeting Western interests, but fellow Indonesians. The cell caught around Jogjakarta in June 2007, for instance, was contemplating a strike against a Christian university in Central Java. The Jakarta cell arrested on Tuesday, according to the media, wanted to sabotage the fuel dump in North Jakarta. There was also an earlier JI plan to attack a police anniversary celebration in Semarang. Western interests can take some comfort that the terrorists’ crosshairs have shifted.
Now the bad news. According to multiple sources, the Indonesian government intends to announce the exact date of the execution of the three Bali bombers. This announcement is likely to take place before the end of this month. The government, meantime, has repeatedly vowed to conduct the executions before the end of this year.
In announcing the executions ahead of time, the government arguably makes it more likely that radicals will plan reprisals to coincide with that date. Indeed, it cannot yet be discounted that the cell arrested on Tuesday intended to coincide its fuel storage attack with the fate of the Bali Three. All of which, from a counter-terrorism point of view, makes for some interesting weeks ahead.
|
-
-
 The NEFA Foundation has obtained an exclusive new interview with Maulana Faquir Mohammed, deputy commander of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). During the interview, Maulana Faquir insisted that the TTP closely supports the activities of Al-Qaida in Pakistan and Afghanistan because these jihadi operations represent the "will of all Muslims." Faquir also discussed the loyalty of Pakistani Taliban forces to the leader of the Afghan Taliban movement, Mullah Mohammed Omar, recognized by them as "the spiritual leader of the jihadi movement." When asked about Taliban interest in launching 9/11-style attacks on U.S. soil, Faquir assured his audience that Al-Qaida "can plan another such attack. Al-Qaida and the Taliban can do anything they want... and we certainly have the desire to launch one."
The new video of Faquir Mohammed can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
Two bombs detonated along Canada's natural gas pipeline on the border between Alberta and British Columbia in the last two weeks. The first explosion, which occurred on October 11, did not rupture the pipeline but did create an eight-foot wide by four-foot deep crater. The device was placed at a vulnerable point where the pipeline emerges from the ground. The second bomb detonated in the early hours of October 16th and caused a gas leak that forced the energy company to shut the pipeline down temporarily.
The RCMP has not disclosed whether the devices were planted by an individual or a group, but they do believe that the two recent incidents are connected and that there is a connection between the bombings and a letter that was sent to the Dawson Creek Daily News the day prior to the first explosion. The letter warned local gas and oil producers to cease operations and leave the area. The RCMP said that the letter did not contain any specific threats.
|
-
William "Bill" White, the leader of the neo-Nazi American National Socialist Workers Party (ANSWP), was arrested last Friday in Roanoke, VA on a Chicago warrant that accuses him of threatening the jury foreman of the 2004 Matthew Hale trial. Matt Hale, the former leader of the white supremacist group World Church of the Creator, is currently serving a 40-year prison term for soliciting the murder of a federal court judge.
ANSWP calls for the establishment of a nation-state in which only whites have the right to citizenship. It calls for the removal of all non-whites and Jews from the United States.
Until the ANSWP website was taken down on October 17, White used it to publish the name and home address of the Hale trial foreman. Over the past two years, White had also used the site to publish home addresses of prominent African American politicians, the names, home addresses, and names of relatives of members of the Roanoke Times newsroom, and the names and home addresses of African American residents of Roanoke, VA with whom White had personal conflicts.
The cover of the August-September issue of the ANSWP newsletter "The National Socialist" featured a photo of Barack Obama with his face framed in cross hairs resembling a swastika. The caption read "Kill This N*****?"
ANSWP was founded by several former members of the National Socialist Movement (NSM) after disagreements with NSM's current leadership. The selection of NSM’s current leadership has resulted in the creation of smaller factions in the last two years; contributing to the weakening of the neo-Nazi movement in the US. The arrest of Bill White may result in the formation of even smaller factions within the movement.
White is scheduled to appear in federal court in Roanoke today (October 23). A court date in Chicago has not yet been determined.
|
-
A recent Associated Press report and a Washington Post article reported that al Qaeda's web sites have expressed a strategic preference of their organization for the next President of the United States. The Washington Post analysis, observing that multiple sites and commentaries close to the Bin Laden group expressed a similar point of view, concluded that this indeed is al Qaeda's agenda: that a John McCain Presidency would benefit the Jihadi goals.
A first quick reading of the site's claim may appear to be an endorsement of the Senator from Arizona. A thorough reading of the posted material in original Arabic, however, and an analysis of the global strategies of the Jihadist movement along with the psychological war efforts by al Qaeda and their allies around the world, tell us a different story and it is the antipode of the Washington Post conclusion.
Here is my reading of the Jihadi postings:
|
-
 The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated additional selected articles from the official magazine of Al-Qaida’s network in Yemen, “Sada al-Malahim.” The articles include two reports from an ongoing series titled “Men on the Road” profiling notable Al-Qaida figures from Yemen and Saudi Arabia who have been recently “martyred” in clashes with “apostate” security forces. The two men are Yemeni national Yasser Nasser al-Hamiqani and ‘Abu Dawud al-Najdi’ (a.k.a. Saudi national Mohammed Rashid al-Julaidan). Hamiqani, released from a Yemeni prison after a failed bid to join the jihad in Iraq, was allegedly killed at a security checkpoint while in the midst of preparing a terrorist attack targeting Ethiopian interests in the al-Bayda province of Yemen. Al-Julaidan, shot down in a clash with Saudi security forces in the “Palms” neighborhood of Riyadh, was a veteran of both Syrian and Saudi prisons—imprisoned for traveling back-and-forth between Iraq and Syria in the service of “his mujahideen brothers in Iraq.”
The two newly-translated articles are available on the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
Earlier today, the Washington Post published an article examining recent "chatter" on Al-Qaida Internet forums which appears to endorse Arizona Senator John McCain as Al-Qaida's "preferred" candidate in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The Post cites a message posted on the notorious Al-Qaida web forum known as "Al-Hesbah" from a frequent discussant, "Mohammad Haafid", in which the latter individual suggests, "Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election" because McCain's anticipated counter-terrorism policies "will succeed in exhausting America." In the wake of the article, the McCain campaign quickly responded with a conference call featuring key advisers Randy Scheunemann and Jim Woolsey. Both men correctly pointed out that the original message on Al-Hesbah was not posted on behalf of any terrorist organization, but was simply the work of an "individual blogger." However, Scheuenmann and Woolsey went even farther, reportedly dismissing the discussions of Al-Hesbah users as meaningless "musings and bravado" broadcast over a single "terrorist Islamist blog."
I sympathize with Scheuenmann and Woolsey when they point out the relevant contrasts between an official communique issued by a terrorist faction versus the independent bloviations of self-appointed Al-Qaida advocates. However, with all due respect, it is extremely disturbing that a former director of the CIA would categorize "Al-Hesbah" as just another "terrorist Islamist blog." One certainly does not need access to classified intelligence data to know what Al-Hesbah is, and who subscribes to their forum. On April 3, 2006, Al-Qaida's Organization in Saudi Arabia issued an official communique regarding their relationship with Al-Hesbah: "We can only say good things about our brothers from the Al-Hesbah network... The brothers from Al-Hesbah have provided a superb service to the jihad and the mujahideen and everyone credits them for this." Last spring, when Al-Qaida's deputy commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri made himself available for a public question-and-answer session, Al-Hesbah was one of three forums specifically identified by Al-Qaida as accepting queries directly on behalf of al-Zawahiri. Over the past four years, Al-Hesbah forum users have quietly disappeared on an almost weekly basis in order to embark upon real-life jihadi missions. A variety of seemingly "ordinary" Al-Hesbah users have been reported "martyred" in jihadi conflicts that include Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and North Africa. Meanwhile, with its fellow online web partners Al-Ekhlaas, Al-Firdaws, and Al-Boraq currently knocked offline, Al-Hesbah is Al-Qaida's last fortified redoubt left on the Internet. Casually dismissing Al-Hesbah as "just another terrorist Islamist blog" is like referring to Internet giant Google as "just another e-commerce website."
There is, of course, a degree of well-deserved irony in John McCain having to defend himself against charges of being a "terrorist enabler". The McCain campaign has been unforgivably slow to condemn the vocal minority of their supporters at recent campaign rallies who have shouted out "Terrorist!" and "Kill him!" in response to hearing the name of Senator Barack Obama. The fact is, Al-Qaida's real interest in the current American election cycle has nothing to do with choosing one candidate over the other -- clearly, Al-Qaida doesn't like either candidate. Rather, what Al-Qaida is hoping to witness this political season are internal recriminations, name-calling, racism, xenophobia, disunity, and America tearing at its own social fabric. The motivation is obviously not in crowning the victor, but in prolonging the game. Those foolish individuals who have shown up at political rallies carrying tasteless signs and threatening violence against their own fellow Americans are Al-Qaida's real allies in this race. They are the ones who responsible for providing a limitless bounty of propaganda fodder for our global adversaries -- and there should be no tolerance in either campaign for such despicable behavior.
|
-
By Frank Hyland
The decades-long armed conflict between Turkey and the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan - PKK) has witnessed a number of major policy shifts by key participants in the past year. The greatest such shift thus far - one in the “sea-change” category - may very well sound the death knell for the PKK, already very much on the defensive in its northern Iraqi redoubt. Following a deadly October 3 PKK attack on a Turkish military outpost in Aktutun, no less a figure than Nechirvan Barzani, Prime Minister of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and nephew of long-time Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) leader and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani, stated that the PKK attacks were aimed at harming relations between Turkey and northern Iraq’s Kurds (Hurriyet, October 9). The idea that an Iraqi Kurdish leader would make such a statement would have been virtually unthinkable over the past twenty five years.
The catalyst for the change in the PKK’s political and cultural environment was the Aktutun attack that killed seventeen Turkish soldiers and wounded twenty more, followed shortly after by an attack on a Diyarbakir police shuttle bus that killed six and wounded approximately two dozen others (Hurriyet, October 9; Today’s Zaman, October 9).
The full article may be viewed at http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2374478
|
-
 The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a video released on October 21, 2008, of Eric Breininger, a German convert to Islam, who traveled to Pakistan and joined the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU). In the first half of 2008, the German authorities issued a warning that Breininger might be preparing attacks against German troops and buildings in Afghanistan. Recently, the German authorities issued a second warning that Breininger and his jihadi comrade from Germany, Houssain al-Malla, had left the Afghanistan-Pakistan area and possibly headed for Western Europe. In this new video statement, Breininger explains in German that he is still in Afghanistan and is not planning attacks in Germany. In an interview published on the NEFA site in June 2008, Breininger had warned that "Germany—along with every other nation taking part in the occupation [of Afghanistan]-should expect attacks by Muslims."
(For more on the IJU, see the October 2008 Special Report authored by NEFA Director of Analysis and Research Ron Sandee.)
|
-
We have always strived to add Contributing Experts who work on the front lines against terrorist plots and networks and not just as an "armchair analyst." So one of my hopes when I opened this website in 2005 was to add a top officer, at an international financial institution, who oversees its Patriot Act/BSA compliance program and can write about detecting and preventing terrorist financing based on his or her daily activities. I am very pleased to now welcome a highly respected expert, James McGinnis, Managing Director for Anti-Money Laundering Compliance at BNP Paribas, to the Counterterrorism Blog as a Contributing Expert. James' career has been focused on achieving corporate compliance with federal laws, and since 2001 has specialized in ensuring compliance with the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing provisions in Title III of the USA Patriot Act. From 2001 until 2007, he was at JPMorganChase, where he created and implemented the Patriot Act compliance program. He then moved to Paribas in New York, where he implemented revisions to the Patriot Act program and directs it. In his role he advised Paribas throughout the decision to cease doing new business inside Iran.
|
-
This morning, the U.S. Treasury is announcing a new designation of the Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI) for providing or attempting to provide financial services to Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). The Iranian regime is allegedly using the EDBI as a substitute financing mechanism as a substitute for Bank Sepah, whose international financing capabilities have been sharply curbed since the Treasury designated it in January 2007 and persuaded our allies to join in that freeze. Contributing Experts Jonathan Winer, Matthew Levitt, Victor Comras, Michael Jacobson and I have written extensively on the series of international sanctions against Sepah and other elements of the Iranian financing system. The Treasury statement alleges that "EDBI has facilitated the ongoing procurement activities of various front companies associated with MODAFL-subordinate entities." The Treasury designated MODAFL and associated entities in October 2007 for activities to promote Iran’s ballistic missile program.
The designation not only includes two EDBI subsidiaries in Iran, but Banco Internacional de Desarollo, C.A., a financial institution located in Venezuela, adding to the U.S. government's program of sanctions and warnings against the Iran-Venezuela alliance. On March 20, Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network publicly listed it on a list of financial institutions through which Iran "disguises its proliferation and terrorism activities through an array of deceptive practices specifically designed to evade detection." On May 30, Douglas Farah posted about that bank as an example of joint banking ventures between Venezuela and Iran designed to evade the sanctions and finance terrorists in Latin America. Doug also posted about Hezbollah's growing ties in Venezuela, and the Treasury designated several Hezbollah-linked entities operating in Venezuela on June 18.
|
-
Between July and September 2007, prosecutors in the case against the Holy Land Foundation (HLF) and its top officials released scores of exhibits that provide unprecedented insight into the dizzying web of connections tying together a handful of alleged Hamas front groups that operated on American soil throughout the 1990s and beyond, serving as a central node in the Muslim Brotherhood's U.S. network. NEFA Senior Analyst Josh Lefkowitz reviewed this treasure trove of documents and highlighted select exhibits. That library of exhibits from the first HLF trial is available here.
On October 22, 2007, after 19 days of deliberation, a jury failed to convict the defendants of a single charge against them. However that decision was quickly thrown into limbo when three jurors indicated during polling that they disagreed with the verdict that had just been rendered. U.S. District Judge Joe A. Fish told jurors, "Your verdict must be unanimous and it's apparent to me from the answers of three members of the jury in respect to my question that the verdicts that I read earlier do not represent the unanimous view of the jury." The jury was ordered to continue deliberations. Following an additional 45 minutes of deliberation, the jurors informed Judge Fish that they could not reach a unanimous decision, and he declared a mistrial.
In September 2008, the second Holy Land Foundation trial began -- and once again the NEFA Foundation has begun to catalog the exhibits released during those proceedings. The new set of HLF exhibits can be viewed here.
|
-
It has been more than three years since Jemaah Islamiyah staged an attack against Western targets in Indonesia. Still, there is reason for the Indonesian authorities to remain concerned about religious extremism.
First, hard-line Islamic political parties for much of this year have been pushing for the passage of a so-called Anti-Pornography Law. While this might sound commendable, in actually the bill contains Draconian wording that is little more than a backdoor attempt to codify elements of Islamic Law. Already, there have been sporadic protests in places like Bali, Jogjakarta, and Jakarta by secular activists—especially women’s rights organizations—which fear being victimized if the bill gets ratified. Opposing them have been large rallies by conservative groups like Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia. These demonstrations—both for and against—are likely to continue through the time the National Assembly votes on the bill’s passage, which could come within a month.
Second, the government is wary of potential reprisals should it fulfill its pledge to execute the three terrorists who masterminded the 2002 Bali bombing. That said, the execution of the trio by firing squad has been “imminent” for the better part of this year. Part of the government’s reluctance to carry out the sentence might be because they don’t want to heighten security risks before the Asian Beach Games in Bali conclude on 26 October. Part, too, is probably because legislative elections are set for April 2009, and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is cognizant of the critical support he receives from hard-line Islamic parties.
Indeed, Islamic extremists seem eager to test the government’s reluctance. Earlier this year, there were numerous examples of paramilitary groups attacking communes operated by Ahmadiyah, an Islamic sect declared heretical by many mainstream Muslims. With rare exception, the authorities offered only a limp response.
Emboldened, on 11 October some 50 members of the Jogjakarta branch of the Islamic Defender's Front (FPI) attacked the local headquarters of Sapta Dharma. Sapta Dharma was founded in Kediri, East Java, in 1952; like Ahmadiyah, it has been declared a deviant Islamic sect. After the police appeared reluctant to take action, Sapta Dharma filed an official complaint against the FPI on 16 October. It remains to be seen if the police are now compelled to take a stand.
|
-
The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated selected articles from the official magazine of Al-Qaida’s network in Yemen, “Sada al-Malahim.” The articles include a report published in the first issue of the magazine (released in January 2008) documenting a failed Yemeni government security operation targeting a suspected Yemeni Al-Qaida member following his return from fighting U.S. forces in the jihad in Iraq. The articles also include two pieces from the second issue of the magazine (released in March 2008), focusing on the Danish cartoon controversy and, respectively, the dangers facing “infidels” who dare to attempt to visit any region of the Arabian Peninsula. Regarding the cartoons, a Yemeni Al-Qaida columnist charged, “the Europeans have entered—as they have entered previously—into a Christian war with Islam and the Muslims. They have opened the doors of hell for themselves, and have opened wide the door to the killing and slaughter of their citizens… If they do not rid themselves of these cartoons, apologize for them, declare that they are no longer permitted, and punish those who insult the Prophet of the Muslims, may Allah bless him and grant him salvation, then they shall be a legitimate target. Furthermore, it will become the responsibility of every Muslim to slaughter them anywhere in the world, and to set upon them with heavy blows.” In the second article, titled “Bearing No Responsibility”, another Al-Qaida writer threatened, “we disavow responsibility for any infidel who has entered the Arabian Peninsula, and his blood and money are open for the taking… Beware entering the Arabian Peninsula under any name or guise—be it as tourists, diplomats, scientific delegations, experts, or journalists. Otherwise, you shall be the primary target of the mujahideen. By Allah, the knife of Abu Musab [al-Zarqawi] is still dripping blood, and we are now holding it.”
The articles available on the NEFA Foundation website include:
* Issue #1: Failed Yemeni Security Operation
* Issue #2: Danish Cartoon Controversy ("Illumination, by Abu Hurairah al Sanani")
* Issue #2: Threats to Those Entering the Arabian Peninsula ("Bearing No Responsibility")
|
-
Islamist terrorists are often portrayed as crazed and irrational actors who live in isolation from the real world, rather than individuals acting according to a coherent logic that makes sense if one understands the premise of the view.
This struck me in reading how the Islamists view the current financial crisis in the West. For Hamas, a part of the global Muslim Brotherhood, the crisis is divine punishment for the multiple sins of the non-Islamist world.
We see it as God's punishment for the criminals (U.S. and its Western allies). Nothing is more unjust than occupying an Islamic state. Nothing is more unjust than keeping the Palestinian people under occupation for over 60 years," Ismail Haniyeh told worshippers before Friday prayers in the Gaza Strip.
This view is shared by al Qaeda. In a recent statements al Qaeda has gloated over the meltdown.
Al-Qaida and other extremist groups have gloated in recent weeks about the West's financial woes, painting the crisis as either divine punishment for supposed wrongs or the last gasps of a dying empire.
An American al-Qaida member, Adam Gadahn, said in a video released this month that ``the enemies of Islam are facing a crushing defeat, which is beginning to manifest itself in the expanding crisis their economy is experiencing.''
The similarity of the sentiments shows what many of us have long said: That while Hamas and the larger Muslim Brotherhood are not the same as al Qaeda, they do share a similar world view. My full blog is here.
|
-
The American Bankers Association, the largest banking trade association in the U.S., today released a proposal to amend the Bank Secrecy Act of 1970 (officially the "Bank Records and Foreign Transactions Act"). The proposal was drafted by a committee of experts in the industry, many of whom were senior federal officials responsible for implementing the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing sections of the USA Patriot Act (along with Dennis Lormel, Matthew Levitt, and Michael Jacobson). A number of the Contributing Experts, including myself, worked with them while they were in office and remain in touch, and we have the highest respect for their expertise and dedication to protecting financial institutions from misuse by criminals and terrorists.
In early May, I suggested "a comprehensive review by government officials, the broader CT community, and financial institutions... to chronicle the current threats and weaknesses of terrorist financing and develop an improved and credible strategy for combating them." It's not that the current legal, regulatory, and international regime fails altogether - the system works in part and fails in part. We need a recognition of those realities and an update of legal authorities, structure, and program funding, and a fresh look at the mechanisms in use for the past seven years, since the passage of the USA Patriot Act. The ABA proposal appears to a good first step towards that broader review. By its nature, the proposal cannot address non-banking terrorist funding mechanisms and the counter-measures developed over time. We look forward to addressing the issue in more detail in the coming months, including at a conference next week, co-sponsored by the ABA (bankers) and ABA (lawyers), at which several of us are making presentations on terrorist financing issues. More next week.
|
-
Today I published a new study, along with my associate Cindy D. Tan at FDD's Center for Terrorism Research, that thematically examines the ideas of prominent al-Qaeda ideologue Abu Yahya al-Libi. This paper is the first in what will be a series of studies produced by the Center for Terrorism Research profiling the contemporary jihadist movement's most prominent thinkers.
An excerpt:
[Al-Libi] also views interfaith dialogue, particularly the conference that Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah sponsored in Madrid, Spain, in July 2008, as part of the internal threat. Al-Libi issued a video on July 28, 2008, describing interfaith dialogue as "a new step in the crusader war." In it, he charges that the call for "fraternization of the three religions" was "not spontaneous or impromptu," but rather that the aim of this dialogue was to create a new religion that would represent the convergence of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism. Al-Libi said: "They want us to lose our personality and identity under the banner of reform, fraternity, coexistence, and peace." Indeed, al-Libi paints a picture of a stark future where only the practice of this new, hybrid religion will be allowed....
An interfaith convergence would corrode Islam's monotheism, making "monotheism a brother to polytheism and deprecation. It raises the mosque next to the church and synagogue and places the Koran on equal footing with falsified books like the Torah and the Bible."
It is worth noting that al-Libi's argument is based on a logical fallacy: that dialogue between the faiths is designed to create, or will inevitably lead to the creation of, a new "consensus" faith that bridges Islam, Christianity, and Judaism. One participant in a jihadist Web forum called him on this, writing: "Al-Libi has distorted the call for [interfaith] dialogue by using expressions such as ‘creating a new religion' and ‘convergence of the three religions'. These are lies and fabrications."
Nonetheless, interfaith dialogue is to al-Libi one of the internal threats to Islam. This idea of internal threat is also tied to his Salafi methodology: those who advocate a "moderate Islam" or otherwise seek to undercut the jihadists' message are following their own desires rather than authentic Islamic teachings. In doing so, they use numerous ploys--ranging from their use of the media to adoption of a secularized vocabulary to such institutions as interfaith dialogue--to distort the true interpretation of Islam.
To read the full study, click here.
|
-
The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new selected article from the official magazine of Al-Qaida’s network in Yemen, “Sada al-Malahim”—in this case, featuring an interview with most wanted Saudi Al-Qaida operative Nayif bin Mohammed al-Qahtani (a.k.a. Abu Hummam al-Qahtani). During the interview, al-Qahtani acknowledged that he had recently sought sanctuary in neighboring Yemen, explaining, “there is one [united] land of the Muslims, and it does not acknowledge the narrow borders drawn by the colonialists with the cooperation of our treacherous rulers… However, the true secret of my arrival in Yemen is the search for good military preparation.” When asked why he had chosen the jihad in the Arabian Peninsula over Afghanistan or Iraq, al-Qahtani outlined his “military rationale”: “if the enemy's interests in the Arabian Peninsula were devastated, his access to our petroleum interrupted, and the oil refineries put out of order, this would cause the enemy to collapse—and they won’t merely be forced to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan, but moreover would face a total collapse. If [our enemy] were to be struck hard in various places, then he would scatter, turn around, and flee forlornly from the land of the Muslims, with his tail between his legs.”
A translation of the interview can be accessed on the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
Once again the UNGA’s Sixth (Legal) Committee is struggling with defining terrorism as it seeks to finalize the longstanding proposed draft of a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT). The Sixth Committee reconvened October 8th to focus on the draft convention and on proposals calling for a new world conference on stemming international terrorism. Unfortunately, the optimism expressed by most delegates in their opening remarks, were also accompanied by restatements of fixed positions on the key issues stalling the finalization of an acceptable draft. It seems that little real progress has been made despite the strenuous efforts of special coordinator Maria Telalian (Greece), who took on the difficult task during the February/March 2008 working group sessions, of trying to find common ground among the participating delegates. From her work it has now become apparent that the real issue holding up agreement on a draft text is simply a lack of political will.
The convention text has long been hung up on three basic issues, (1) terminology to be used in defining terrorism, (2) the relationship between terrorism and anti-colonial and national liberation movements; (3) the activities of State’s armed forces in armed conflicts, and in the peacetime exercise of their official duties.
During the course of the last 12 years the Sixth Committee (and its various working groups) has reviewed and tested just about every permutation possible for a definition of terrorism. Several delegates now suggest that “even if certain terms appear to be vague and unclear, the rules of treaty interpretation could provide the necessary tools and sufficient guidance…” Others, however, continue to insist that the value of a comprehensive convention resides in its closing the remaining gaps and underscoring the principle that “terrorism cannot be justified for whatever purposes.” Let us hope that this view prevails, doubtful as that may now seem.
It is now becoming increasingly apparent that, even if the Sixth Committee and the General Assembly are finally able to agree, at this or some future session, on a draft comprehensive anti-terrorism convention, the language contained therein will still leave the door open for many countries to continue to provide support to those insurgent groups they favor, even if such groups continue to employ terrorist tactics. For this convention, like most international conventions, will not be self executing. Implementation of its provisions, which are intended to criminalize terrorist activities, will require national legislation and domestic juridical interpretation and action. It will be up to each country to decide what is required and to enforce its provisions. And that is why several of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries have put such emphasis on assuring that the definition of terrorism has sufficient wiggle room for them to justify, and allow them to continue, their support for such groups as Hamas, Hizbollah, Islamic Jihad, Laskhar y Taiba, and so many other groups that employ terrorist tactics.
With this in mind members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the Non Aligned Group, continue to insist that there be a direct link between the definition language contained in Article 2 of the draft convention with language which they say must serve to “establish a clear distinction between acts of terrorism covered by the convention and the legitimate struggle of peoples in the exercise of their right to self-determination or against foreign occupation."
Another major Sixth Committee debate will center on the language of draft Article 18 and the scope and coverage of the convention vis a vis the operations and activities of military forces in both peacetime and conflict situations. As now presented draft Article 18 states: “The activities of armed forces during an armed conflict, as those terms are understood under international humanitarian law, which are governed by that law, are not governed by the present convention.” The OIC has long sought to change the current draft language so as to bring such activities also under the purview of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism. They argue that the current language could serve to exempt military forces from criminal accountability for unjustified or excessive actions. But, this is largely a ruse that really seeks to use convention language to equate Israel's responses to terrorist attacks with terrorism.
A new proposal now circulating makes it quite evident that the CCIT provides no exemptions in this regard and certainly would not have the effect of making lawful, otherwise unlawful acts. Rather, the convention would recognize that other laws do apply in these circumstances and that nothing in the current convention would preclude prosecution under such laws. A new reference to Article 2 in paragraph 4 of draft Article 18, together with the new preambular paragraph, would, at the same time, underscore that there remains a “class of conduct” which, if committed, would constitute an offence that would remain punishable irrespective of the specific convention that would apply.
The OIC has pretty much already gotten what it has demanded, even as its members remain resistant and aloof toward finalizing an agreed text. Perhaps it is also now time for those interested in assuring that the convention will, if adopted, really serve the purposes for which it is intended -- to cover the gaps that continue to allow countries to throw a blind eye to the terrorist groups in their midsts -- to take a second look. Another convention that simply leaves the current loopholes in place - and allows countries to continue to fund groups known to carry out terrorist attacks will not advance the interests of international peace and security.
|
-
The Counterterrorism Foundation co-sponsored a panel on the subject of "Meta-Terror: Terrorism & the Virtual World" on February 29, and it was one of our most heavily attended and widely publicized events. The panel, which included Contributing Experts Evan Kohlmann and Roderick Jones, discussed the next generation of the terrorists’ use of the virtual world. You can listen to a BBC interview of several of us on the subject. One of the panelists in that event, Kenneth Silva, the Senior VP and Chief Technology Officer of VeriSign, will be a panelist on a public event tomorrow, October 16, on the issue. Titled "Cyber-Crime and Cyber-Terrorism--No Silver Bullet Solution," the event will be held at 12 pm ET in Room 188 of the Russell Senate Building in Washington, DC. Topics will include:
-- New threats from organized crime and international terrorism;
-- How to be more responsible in protecting yourself from these threats; and
-- What's being done "behind the scenes" to keep Internet users more safe, including a multi-layer approach proposed by industry.
The other panelists will include Michael Kaiser, Executive Director of the National Cyber Security Alliance, and Steve DelBianco, Executive Director of NetChoice.
You can RSVP at this e-mail address.
|
-
The NEFA Foundation has released several new videos that show how much emphasis al Qaeda and its affiliates are placing on Africa, as well as the growing ability to plug into the radical Islamist propaganda machine, which keeps churning out its hate-laced videos in an effort to attract new recruits.
The most interesting are these videos of the training camps in Somalia and the English-language videos.
Islamists operating in Somalia, some have repeatedly argued, are largely an indigenous group with few real ties to al Qaeda central or broader militant movements. These videos, and the accompanying texts of the statements show that, while that may have been true in the past, it certainly is not now.
Somalia is attempting to become the new Afghanistan on the African continent, and perhaps has already achieved that goal.
The conditions are favorable. Chaos, no government to speak of, a large pool of potential recruits, anger at the current situation and lack of significant international response, and established veterans to lead the movement who have ties to the al Qaeda core.
The fact that the Ethiopian troops and modest peacekeeping mission have not succeeded in establishing an functioning government is testament to the group's strength (and to the government's weakness.)
Al Qaeda has made no secret of its desire to open as many new fronts as possible, in the belief that it can bleed the rest of the world into submission. With combatants leaving Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia have become the new points of concentration.
The footage includes scenes of mujahideen recruits practicing using automatic weapons, RPGs, and anti-tank weapons—all under the watchful eyes of such instructors as Shebaab military chief Shaykh Mukhtar Robow (a.k.a. Abu Mansuur) and FBI Most Wanted terrorist suspect Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan. The video also shows recruits receiving lessons in the fabrication of explosives and advanced urban warfare/assault tactics. My full blog is here.
|
-
-
In the Western debate on how best to counter the rise and expansion of the Jihadi movement, particularly the Salafists, within liberal democracies, European experiences are important because of the sheer numbers of militants and the dissemination within many urban areas. France's counter terrorism experiences are one among these learning processes for all other European Govenrment but also for North American CT planning as well. In an article I published in the Middle East Times today I commented on France's Interior Minister remarks on the state of confrontation with the Jihadists. In a recent series of seminars in Paris, which I will report about on CTB, I also interacted with a number of French legislators and CT officials dealing with the French involvement in Afghanistan and the Sahel. In short, France is heading towards "increasing engagement with al Qaeda on two continents, Asia and Africa, as well as at home. Below is the article:
|
-
 The NEFA Foundation has released a new report by NEFA Director of Analysis and Research Ronald Sandee titled "The Islamic Jihad Union." The Islamic Jihad Union was founded by breakaway fighters from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in March 2002 in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas. The organization initially called itself the Islamic Jihad Group, but, after failed attacks in Uzbekistan in 2004 and early 2005, changed its name and became closer to core al-Qa’ida. Since then, the organization’s focus has shifted, as the IJU began plotting terror attacks in Pakistan and Western Europe, especially Germany. Based in Mirali in South Waziristan, the IJU is training Western recruits for attacks in the West. The recruits are mainly Turks from Turkey and Turkish communities in Western Europe, but also Muslim converts from Europe. Although the IJU currently does not seem to be terribly effective in the execution of its operations, it remains a force to be reckoned with.
The full report can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
The Al-Markaziya News Agency and the Lebanese OTV television channel are reporting that security forces in the northern Lebanese town of Tripoli have allegedly prepared an arrest warrant for Shaykh Omar Bakri Mohammed, the founder of the Al-Muhajiroun extremist movement. Bakri has been living in northern Lebanon since 2005, when he fled his former home in London and was subsequently declared no longer welcome by the government of the United Kingdom.
In June 2002, I traveled with a colleague to interview Shaykh Omar Bakri at his headquarters in north London. During our discussion, he freely confessed to me, "My dream is to see the Islamic flag over the White House, and it will fly very high... You say to me, you dream. OK, let me enjoy my own dream... let me enjoy my dream... let me be a foolish dreamer, as long as I don’t commit terrorist activity. Don’t censor me and don’t ban me. You banned me in 1988 from university campuses, yet I entered all different university campuses under different names and started many different societies. They close one, I open a new one." Smilingly, he warned, "Be careful. If you keep calling somebody a terrorist... After a while, oh my god, I'm a terrorist... so let me practice it."
In response, I asked the Shaykh exactly what point he and his followers would turn to carrying out acts of violence. He explained, "according to Islam, that can be done only when the treaty is breached. The moment they arrest me, the treaty between us is no longer there, after that I can give my all. And my all will be it... Maybe nothing will happen, maybe my own people will bring me down, maybe they will do nothing, maybe I'm just dreaming--but Islamically speaking, after that, there will be no treaties and no sanctity between us."
|
-
 The NEFA Foundation has obtained a video recording from the Shebaab al-Mujahideen Movement in Somalia featuring recent footage of a locally-based jihad training camp. The footage includes scenes of mujahideen recruits practicing using automatic weapons, RPGs, and anti-tank weapons—all under the watchful eyes of such instructors as Shebaab military chief Shaykh Mukhtar Robow (a.k.a. Abu Mansuur) and FBI Most Wanted terrorist suspect Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan. The video also shows recruits receiving lessons in the fabrication of explosives and advanced urban warfare/assault tactics.
The NEFA Foundation has also separately made available video testimonials from English-speaking recruits enrolled at the training camp. One of the men, masked and cradling an automatic weapon, boasted, "We have a global mission, that's why America puts us number 41 in the terrorists' list... I sincerely advise my beloved brothers and sisters to make hijrah and come join us and defend the religion of Allah." Another Shebaab recruit, sitting in front of an anti-tank missile, directed a menacing call "to the filthy dogs of Denmark, may Allah(SWT) break their hands for what they have drawn. We will never forget their mockery of the best of mankind and the last Messenger. So, sleep with the thoughts of our swords dripping with your blood." He added, "I'm calling on all Muslims in the world to stand up and avenge for their religion, their books, their prophet. Stand up, and resist the oppression of the kuffar [infidels]... and fight the kuffar [infidels] and their apostate puppets. O' Muslim brothers, migrate to the lands of jihad and fight alongside your brothers."
Both video segments can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
One of the striking things about several of today's military engagements with Islamist radicals is the inability to improve people's lives, even after several years on the ground.
The most obvious example is Afghanistan, where Gen. David McKiernan warns that better governance and economic progress are vital.
"It is true that in many places of this country we don't have an acceptable level of security. We don't have good governance. We don't have socio-economic progress. We don't have people that are able to grow their produce and get it to market. We don't have freedom of movement," he told a news conference in Kabul.
One of the great lessons of the Taliban's first takeover was not that their theology and ideology were loved and supported by all or even most Afghanis. It was that the Taliban promised-and delivered-stability and security.
The same is true in Somalia, where chaos now reigns, despite the presence of foreign troops and AU peacekeepers. The biggest failing of the effort is the failure to deliver on the promises to make Mogadishu and other areas safe and secure. The Islamists did when they controlled Mogadishu, the international forces have not.
My point is that much is made over the idea of winning people's hearts and minds, and that is often interpreted as getting people to love us, or at least really, really like us, or whatever anti-Islamist group is fighting.
But, in my years of covering insurgencies and counter-insurgencies, that is a fanciful notion. What people do want, especially in situations where chaos and fear have been the norm for years, is to live a somewhat normal and secure life. The relative success in Iraq, I would argue, is due as much to that as any other factor. That is the danger of the Iraqi government's inability to press forward on the political side, for real improvement, while the military creates a climate of normalcy. My full blog is here.
|
-
-
The Bush Administration announced today that North Korea has agreed to all demands for inspection of its nuclear facilities, enabling the U.S. to remove North Korea from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism." The removal is only "provisional," in that North Korea would return to the list if it fails to comply with the inspections.
On June 27, Michael Kraft discussed this issue in detail, the steps required under law to remove a "state sponsor," and the continuing concerns over the removal as expressed by key Members of Congress. To quote from that post:
"...Congress enacted related legislation requiring that it be notified 45 days in advance before a rescission of a terrorist list designation could take effect. Its purpose was to allow time for the lawmakers to try to block the proposed move if they disagreed. These procedures were laid out under the Anti-Terrorism and Arms Export Amendments Act of 1989 (ATAEAA, Public Law 101-222). The law was a Congressional reaction to the Reagan Administration’s removal of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq from the terrorism list in 1982 without informing Congress, even informally, in advance. To review the procedures:
Under the ATAEAA law, a compromise worked out with the State Department, the President may propose to remove a country from the terrorism list under one of two procedures: Under the first, he must submit a report to selected legislators that states:
(i) there has been a fundamental change in the leadership and policies of the government concerned;
(ii) that the government is not supporting acts of international terrorism, and
(iii) the government has provided assurances that it will not support acts of international terrorism in the future.
This procedure was adopted at the State Department’s request in case there was a situation in which the designated country’s leadership and policies suddenly changed and the U.S. wanted to quickly provide economic or other assistance.
Alternately, the President may lift a terrorist list designation by sending a report to the Congressional leadership 45 days before the proposed rescission would take effect that states:
(i) the government concerned has not provided support for international terrorism during the preceding 6-month period;
(ii) and the country has provided assurances that it will not support acts of international terrorism in the future.
This second procedure is being used in North Korea’s case."
Michael also discussed North Korea's history of support for terrorism:
"While the nuclear issues are the focus of the Congressional concerns, there are still some lingering old terrorism issues although North Korea has not been involve in terrorist attacks in recent years. Secretary of State George Shultz placed North Korea on the terrorism after the bombing of Korean Airlines Flight 858 in 1987 by North Korean agents. North Korean operatives were also behind a 1983 attempt to kill South Korean President Chun Doo Hwan, who was scheduled to visit a memorial in Rangoon, Burma (now Myanmar. The timed bombs went off before his arrival, killing 17 South Korean dignitaries instead...
North Korea also had supported terrorist groups operating in the Middle East and Sri Lanka. For example a January, 2008 Congressional Research Service Brief, page 17, describes press reports that North Korea has provided arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. Both groups are designated as foreign terrorist organizations by the U.S.
The reports fit a historic pattern. North Korea provided training and other assistance to a variety of terrorist groups in the 1960’s and 70’s including the Palestine Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine when it conducted major aircraft hijackings and other attacks and to the Japanese Red Army. These two groups staged a joint attack in 1972 that killed 24 persons including 16 American citizens from Puerto Rico when their plane landed in Israeli for a Christian pilgrimage."
Today's decision is already drawing criticism from the ranking Republican on the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and might also draw criticism from leading Democrats on that committee who expressed their skepticism this year of North Korea's intentions. But Congress might be powerless to block the removal; if the aforementioned 45-day period starts today, it would end before Congress returns for a short period in mid-November.
|
-
According to economic analysis the severe financial crisis ravaging the US and hitting the international community on all continents has its economic roots in two major realms: One was the overbearing political pressure put on Wall Street to release loans into unprepared sectors of society and two, was the miscalculation -some say the drunkenness- of Wall Street in accepting these immense risks. But according to Political Economy assessment, there may have been a third player in the crisis: OPEC, or more precisely, radical circles within Oil Producing regimes in the Peninsula. The thesis argue that combined Salafist-Wahabi and Muslim Brotherhood circles in the Gulf -with consent from the Iranian side on this particular issue, used the escalating pricing of Oil over the past year to push the financial crisis in the US over the cliff. The “high point” in this analysis is the timing between the skyrocketing of the prices at the pumps and the widening of the real estate crisis. In short the “Oil-push” put the market out of balance hitting back at Wall Street. Basically, there was certainly a crisis in mismanagement domestically (with its two above mentioned roots), but the possible OPEC economic “offensive” crumbled the defenses of US economy in few months.
The link between this analysis and our counter terrorism interests is dual. One, if the forthcoming investigation will demonstrate that there was a war room manipulated by the “radicals” within OPEC striking at US and Western economies, we would be witnessing the rise of the concept of “economic terrorism.” Two, and as the forthcoming investigation is progressing, a re-reading of al Qaeda and other Jihadi literature, speeches and statements about the Silah al Naft (Weapon of Oil) and more particularly the calls by Ayman Zawahiri on “selling US dollars and buying Gold, ahead of American economic collapse” seems to be necessary. Zawahiri’s statements most likely aren’t coordinated with the OPEC “hard core” push but his knowledge of the “push” is more than likely because of his ties to the Wahabi-Salafi circles inside the Kingdom. Moreover, such a finding would shed light on the analysis of commentary on the web and on Satellite media about "the necessity for Americans to feel the pain of economic pressures, to put political pressures on their Government to change course in the region."
I am posting here two pieces on the subject.
|
-
On October 3, 2008, Ghaith al-Omari and Dennis Ross joined me at a Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute to honor the launch of my new book, Negotiating Under Fire. Mr. al-Omari, a former advisor to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, is currently the advocacy director at the American Task Force on Palestine. Ambassador Ross is an independent consultant to The Washington Institute and has previously served in senior foreign policy positions in the Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton administrations. The following is drawn from the rapporteur's summary of our remarks. An audio recording of the event is available here. A special publisher's discount on the purchase price of the book is available here.
A peace process is not necessarily a peaceful process. Negotiations do not occur in a vacuum, and external events -- violent attacks, in particular -- have a direct impact on the process. Terrorist attacks upset the negotiation process by freezing whatever positive momentum the parties have established, and then injecting a countermomentum that undermines the ability and willingness of both parties to continue.
Consider the following three cases highlighted in Negotiating Under Fire: the February 1994 Hebron massacre by Baruch Goldstein, the November 1994 kidnapping and murder of Israeli soldier and dual U.S. citizen Nachshon Wachsman, and the February/March 1996 string of terrorist attacks in Israel.
|
-
I just wrote an article for the Middle East Times, delving into the Syrian imbroglio. Lots of "incidents" have been happening in this usually very quiet country.
To read the full article, click here.
Here is an excerpt:
While it is tough to know for sure what is going on in Assad's country, a certain pattern is emerging. And all roads lead to the International Tribunal that is meant to try the murderers of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. For the time being the various U.N. reports on the investigation are pointing to one direction where the culprits are presumed to be: Damascus.
What Assad would hate more than anything is that his regime would stand accused and be convicted of being behind the assassination of Hariri. The International Tribunal has become an obsession for the Syrian president. According to the Beirut daily Al-Anwar who cites Lebanese and international sources who obtained copies of the forthcoming report from the international commission, Syrian security services heavyweights are reportedly implicated in Hariri's assassination.
This has put the regime in Damascus in a near panic state. A number of analysts believe that Assad will go to great lengths to prevent the tribunal from proceeding. Now a more clear explanation of events which unfolded in Syria over the last year begins to emerge.
It all started with the assassination in February in Damascus of Hezbollah's Imad Mughnieh. While no formal accusation against the Syrian security services can be made, there is no way that in a country so tightly controlled there was not at least complicity from some in the regime. Interestingly, Mughnieh was suspected of having a hand in Hariri's murder and it could have been convenient for Damascus to get rid of him to avoid linkage to the regime.
|
-
The U.S. Treasury has released its latest annual report on the assets in the U.S. of state sponsors of terror and the other international terrorism program designees (Acrobat file). This report, mandated under law since 1991, is the sixteenth released by the Treasury and covers calendar year 2007.
As of December 31, 2007, the amount of assets of international terrorist organizations and individuals which were blocked totaled over $20.7 million. Of that, over $11.3 million constituted assets of Al Qaeda, and that level was an increase of almost 46 percent over the level blocked as of the end of 2006. The report states, "The increase in blocked terrorist organization assets in 2007 is due to new or additional blockings, interest paid on blocked funds, and increased share price on certain blocked securities."
As of December 31, 2007, the amount of blocked funds in the U.S. relating to the state sponsors of terrorism on that date (Cuba, Sudan, Syria, North Korea, and Iran) totaled over $315 million, including a small amount of funds in foreign branches of U.S.-based banks. Additionally, there were $87 million in funds of Iran and Syria which were not blocked, and also unvalued real and tangible personal property located in the U.S. The report includes more details on each of those three categories.
|
-
Slowly, it seems, the criminal-terrorist nexus is coming into a sharper focus for policy makers. The head of DHS intelligence analysis Charlie Allen, recently acknowledged the "threats in this hemisphere are real. We cannot ignore them."
This may not seem like much, but until now, there has been only passing comments by U.S. Southern Command commanders and the DEA on the linkages between drug trafficking organizations and Islamist radicals. In this case, the threat is primarily from Iran and the Shiite Hezbollah organization rather than the Sunni-al Qaeda linked groups.
DEA Chief of Operations Mike Braun, at the same conference, aptly noted that drug traffickers and terrorist organizations often have much in common: ""They use the same money launderers, the same document forgers," he said. "You are naturally going to bump up against terrorist organizations."
Much of the discussion of these matters takes place in the context of these linkages being hypothetical, something to watch out for down the road.
Allen said the possibility of cooperation between terrorists and drug trafficking organizations was a "low probability" and would be "unprecedented," but that it was feasible.
I have a somewhat different take on this because, while each piece of the puzzle presents a fragmentary picture, all the pieces together show this would be, I think, a far higher probability.
The alliances among drug trafficking organizations and terrorist organizations have already taken place in Colombia (The FARC and AUC). The FARC has demonstrated an ability to reach out to other terrorist groups-even those who have little in common with the FARC's Marxist ideology-for technology sharing, information sharing and weapons (see paper I did for the NEFA Foundation for details). My full blog is here.
|
-
 The NEFA Foundation has obtained an Arabic-language video recording released by the Shebaab al-Mujahideen Movement in Somalia featuring a statement from Kenyan national Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan (a.k.a. “Abu Yousef”), who is currently wanted by the FBI “in connection with the 2002 attacks in Mombasa, Kenya, against a hotel and an airliner.” In his video address, Nabhan expressed his admiration and respect for Al-Qaida leader Usama Bin Laden, calling upon Muslims around the world: “Here are the training camps in Somalia and elsewhere… that have opened their doors so that you join them… Do you not see your brothers from the people of Al-Shams and your brothers in Egypt and your brothers in Iraq? …So likewise I say, Oh people of Kenya and Tanzania, and Nigeria and Uganda and Chad! Will you not take your share of the jihad? …And we are waiting for reinforcements from Sudan and Yemen of wisdom and faith. Rise up from your seats, in the houses of your mothers, and join the caravan of the protectors of al-Tawheed… and be among those who raise the black banner in Somalia the first time after the invasion of the Ethiopian scum.”
An English transcript of al-Nabhan's remarks can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
Today FDD's Center for Terrorism Research brings you the sixth installment of our Voices of the Awakening series, authored by Sterling Jensen. The series is designed to provide Westerners a better understanding of ongoing developments in the Iraqi Awakening movement. This regular feature includes critical translations of Awakening news and documents, Jensen's observations and analysis, and occasional interviews with the movement's leaders.
This week the
Iraqi Awakening held three VIP meetings with important visitors to Anbar: the
Iraqi Caretaker of the Hajj Mohammed Taqi al-Mullah, former Iraqi Minister of
Defense Sadoon al-Dulaymi, and Undersecretary of State John Negroponte and
Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker. An excerpt from our update:
INSIDER'S PERSPECTIVE: The Iraqi
Caretaker of Hajj's visit with Sheikh Ahmad Bezia and his recognition of the
Iraqi Awakening's nationalist and anti-terror accomplishments highlight the
image the Awakening leadership wishes to project about itself: it is more than
a group of self-interested Sunni tribes whose efforts will only bring short
term gains. The Awakening sees itself as an Iraqi initiative that is on board
with the new Iraq. It does not consider itself a foreign-imposed program, as
they perceive many of the political parties in Iraq to be. Though most
Westerners view the Awakening as a Western short-term attempt to prevent a
civil war, the Awakening would be confused by that assertion. They consider
partnering with the Coalition Forces to fight al-Qaeda and rebuild Iraq a means
to an end: a stable, prosperous and modern Iraq. In their view, a new Iraq will
only achieve stability through Iraqi initiatives. For the Awakening leadership,
the visit by Sadoon al-Dulaymi also affirms the Awakening's originality. The
former Minister of the Defense--during PM Jaffari's government--is a relative of
Sheikh Ahmad Bezia, and Sheikh Ahmad and the late Sheikh Abdul Sattar would
often solicit his support for GOI [government of Iraq] contacts and meetings when the Awakening was
forming in Anbar in the summer of 2006. The support of people like Sadoon
al-Dulaymi helps to legitimize the Awakening's relationship with the GOI. Also,
reporting the visit with Undersecretary Negroponte and Ambassador Crocker, and
quoting them saying there would not be security in Iraq today had it not been
for the efforts of Sheikh Abdul Sattar Bezia Abu Risha, emphasizes two key Awakening
assertions: first, that the tribes were able to do what the United States was
unable to do, and second, that the Awakening sees the United States as a future
partner for Iraq.
There is a
difference, though, between the Iraqi Awakening's approach to reconciliation
and a new Iraq, and the approach of some Awakening leaders who emerged out of
the Sons of Iraq program. This week there was an interview in the U.S.-based
publication The Nation with an Awakening leader called Abu
Azzam. Abu Azzam, a Sons of Iraq-Awakening leader not yet reconciled with the
GOI, stated in the interview that the GOI and the Americans were creating the
conditions for a new Sunni resistance. The GOI is doing this, he says, by
moving against Awakening Councils--and the Americans are doing this by claiming
that security came to Iraq through a surge of American troops. Abu Azzam and
others in this interview say Russia is in contact with them and other former
regime elements to exploit American weakness and shortsightedness. It's important
to note that Iraqis, and especially Awakening fighters, are offended when they
hear Americans claiming credit for security gains in Iraq--when they believe it
was the Iraqis who started the movement, and took the most risks and
casualties.
For the entire Voices of the Awakening update, click here.
|
-
 The NEFA Foundation has obtained and transcribed a copy of the latest English-language video message from American Al-Qaida spokesman Adam Gadahn (a.k.a. “Abu Azzam al-Amriki”) released on October 3, titled “The Believer Isn’t Stung from the Same Hole Twice.” Breaking his silence after a nearly ten-month unexplained absence from Al-Qaida propaganda videos, Gadahn sharply criticized the Pakistani government and military under the leadership of, respectively, President Asif Ali Zardari and General Ashfaq Kayani. In addition to his analysis of the increasingly unstable situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan, Gadahn also commented on “the looming meltdown threatening the crusaders economic system”—whose “primary cause”, according to Gadahn, is Americans “turning their backs on Allah’s revealed laws, which forbid interest-bearing transactions, exploitation, greed, and injustice in all its forms, and demand the worship of Allah alone to the exclusion of all false gods, including money and power.”
The transcript can be accessed on the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
A headline in the October 7 issue of "The Peninsula," a leading daily newspaper in Qatar, boasts, "Country free of terror financing: IMF report," with the lead sentence, "A report just issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given Qatar a clean bill of health stating there is no terrorism financing and minimal money laundering taking place in the country, if at all."
Which would be great if the report really says that... but it doesn't. Here are a few selections from the actual report, available in full here. You be the judge:
"Terrorist financing is criminalized, albeit in a limited way, under Article 4 of the Law No. (3) of 2004 on Combating Terrorism (CT Law). It may apply with respect to all “terrorist crimes” which cover all the offenses listed in the standard, bar the unlawful seizure of an aircraft carried out with no intention to terrorize, cause harm, death or material damage and with no political motive... The offense, therefore, does not extend to the collection of material or financial assistance for and their provision to terrorist individuals or for a terrorist act." (Page 9.)
"(A)n interdepartmental committee has been established to coordinate Qatar’s efforts in the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1267 and the international conventions on the fight against terrorism, but its mandate does not cover UNSCR 1373; no authority has been granted the powers to designate terrorists; and there is no legal basis for freezing under the relevant UNSCR... It also appeared that, on one occasion, the authorities offered safe harbor to a person designated under UNSCR 1267. No actions were taken with respect to this person’s funds and other assets." (Page 10.)
"The preventive measures for financial institutions in the domestic sector fall short of addressing a vast majority of the customer due diligence elements of the international standard... The current obligations do not prohibit the opening of anonymous accounts or accounts in fictitious names. There are no direct requirements to determine whether a person is acting on behalf of the customer nor to identify and verify the beneficial owner of the account. The requirements for ensuring that customer documentation, information, or data are kept up-to-date are inadequate. Requirements for addressing enhanced due diligence for higher-risk categories are incomplete. There are no measures in place addressing politically exposed persons and cross-border correspondent relationships. There are no provisions covering the risk associated with new or developing technologies." (Page 11.)
"Overall, the terrorist financing offense meets most of the requirements set out in the ICSFT. However, several shortcomings remain: the coverage of terrorist acts is not sufficiently broad to be fully in line with the standard (for example, unlawful seizure of an aircraft is not considered a terrorist act in the absence of an intention to cause harm, death, terror or damage); this also limits the notion of terrorist groups or organizations; and the law does not cover the collection and provision of funds when there is no link to a terrorist group or organization. These shortcomings unduly limit the application of the terrorist financing offense." (Page 46.)
And the most troubling section in the report is about that aforementioned release of a U.N.-designated terrorist by the government (also on page 46):
|
-
The Washington Institute published a piece by Richard Barrett, the head of the al Qaeda/Taliban monitoring team for the UN, on how a recent ruling by the European Court of Justice could put not only the EU's but the UN's targeted sanctions regime at risk as well.
Here is an excerpt from the piece:
In early September, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) -- the highest court in the European Union -- ruled that the EU's application of UN sanctions against Yasin Qadi and the al-Barakaat International Foundation infringed their basic rights, and declared the action illegal under EU law. Although the judgment applies only to these two parties, the ruling has far-reaching consequences, for not only the EU but also the entire UN system of targeted sanctions.
ECJ Ruling
The EU imposed sanctions on Qadi, a Saudi businessman, and al-Barakaat, a money remitter in Sweden, when they appeared on the UN Security Council's al-Qaeda/Taliban list in October 2001. Although countries must implement Security Council sanctions, they can choose how to do so. EU member states adopted a regulation that automatically applied sanctions to any individual or entity mentioned by the UN. The sanctions include an assets freeze and severe travel restrictions.
The ECJ overturned a lower court ruling that suggested EU member states had little choice but to handle UN designations in this pro forma manner. The ECJ decided that despite their obligations under the UN Charter, EU members could not adopt a regulation that infringed rights integral to EU law. What most concerned the court was that the listed parties were not informed of their wrongdoing and had no opportunity to put their case before an independent review body.
The court neither questioned the right of the Security Council to impose sanctions, nor asked if such action was appropriate. Furthermore, the court gave the EU three months to address the identified problems before the judgment took effect. But whatever the EU does, the court has issued a major challenge to the use of sanctions as an international counterterrorism tool.
Although Qadi and al-Barakaat remain on the UN list, the twenty-seven EU member states will need to find a new way to implement the sanctions against them -- in a manner that satisfies the court. If they fail to do so, the UN sanctions regime may collapse.
To read the rest of the piece, click here
|
-
The NEFA Foundation has obtained four new statements from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban). In these new communiqués, the Taliban have denied widespread rumors of Saudi-sponsored peace talks with the Afghan government and have mocked news that U.S. troops withdrawing from Iraq may soon be sent to Afghanistan. The communiqués also include an official message from Taliban commander Mullah Mohammed Omar, in which he strongly warned Taliban fighters, “be very careful when you face the general population and your innocent countrymen. Don’t go ahead with an attack which has the possibility of harming the general population… Every act [must be avoided] which is not in harmony with the teachings of Islam, which is not customary in our Islamic civilization, or which reflects poorly upon the Islamic nation. Covert enemy operations carried out in your name—such as the blasts in the mosques where there are gatherings of innocent people, highway robbery, the chopping of noses and ears in the name of what is forbidden in Islam and what is considered permissible or non permissible, and the burning of Islamic books—must be strongly countered. Whoever is responsible for acts such as this for whatever reasons must restrain his group, and must not defame our mujahideen.”
The translated statements can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.
|
-
Seems like things in Afghanistan, at least in the world of perceptions, is going south as fast as Dow Jones. While circumstances on the ground have not changed radically in recent months, the Taliban have scored significant success simply by starting the current debate on whether the war in Afghanistan is winnable at all.
The opening salvo was fired in a leaked French diplomatic cable, which quoted the British ambassador in Kabul as saying the war couldn't be won.
According to the New York Times version:
"The current situation is bad, the security situation is getting worse, so is corruption, and the government has lost all trust," the British envoy, Sherard Cowper-Coles, was quoted as saying by the author of the cable, François Fitou, the French deputy ambassador to Kabul.
"The presence of the coalition, in particular its military presence, is part of the problem, not part of its solution," Cowper-Coles was quoted as saying. "Foreign forces are the lifeline of a regime that would rapidly collapse without them. As such, they slow down and complicate a possible emergence from the crisis."
Then, in one of the first stories on what all of Kabul knows, the NYT took on the issue of the possible involvement of President Karzai's brother, Ahmed Wali, to the booming heroin trade. This, of course, only serves to reinforce the ambassador's fears about the growing corruption and the complete loss of faith in the Karzai. My full blog is here.
|
-
CIA director Mike Hayden gave an an interesting interview to Fox News identifying the the greatest security challenges to the next administration.
One of the identified threats (after the increasingly unstable but nuclear-armed North Korea) is what Hayden dubbed the "Axis of Oil," that dangerous mix of petro-fueled dollars giving Russia, Iran and Venezuela the economic means to become increasingly reckless militarily.
This is correct, and, I believe, a healthy recognition that there are serious threats outside the Iraq and radical Sunni Islamist threat. The alliance of a radical Shiite Islamist state, a radical populist government and a nation correctly described as one that is reversing democratic gains and ruled by officially sanctioned organized crime, indeed poses a threat.
What gives that Axis its power is the money we pay for foreign oil. What binds them together is this money and their avowed and public desire to go after not just the United States, but Western democracies in other places.
None of them would be able to retain their oppressive state structures and fuel instability abroad (particularly aimed at Latin America) if they didn't have the billions of petro-dollars to do it.
Unfortunately, a full transcript of Hayden's remarks has not been posted, so all we have is a snippet of Hayden noting that oil prices, which are still hovering around $100 per barrel, have emboldened these oil-rich nations. "Oil, at its current price ... gives the Russian state a degree of influence and power that it would have not otherwise had," he said. full blog is here.
|
-
DALLAS - From donations urging violence to advertisements and videos lauding one of the fathers of global jihad, evidence in the Hamas-support trial against former officials at the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF) Thursday took a decidedly bloody tone.
The five defendants are accused of illegally funneling $12 million to Hamas through a series of charities, or zakat committees in the West Bank and Gaza. FBI agent Lara Burns has been on the witness stand all week, presenting evidence establishing the group's stated and passionate support for Hamas.
A mistrial was declared last October after jurors could not reach unanimous verdicts on most counts. Defendant Mohamed El-Mezain was acquitted on all counts against him with the exception of a conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists.
This time, added care seems to be taken to identify all the players and define their connections to the case. In addition, some of the exhibits were not entered into evidence last year.
Defense attorneys argue the men merely sought to alleviate suffering by needy Palestinians living under occupation. The images displayed Thursday rarely invoked those needy people, but focused instead on the need to attack.
Several exhibits showing HLF's invocation Abdullah Azzam, an iconic Palestinian jihadist, are among the new evidence presented by the government. Azzam moved to Pakistan after the Russian invasion of Afghanistan to set up the Office of Services of the Holy Warriors (Mujahideen) and is considered a mentor to Osama bin Laden.
The Azzam exhibits were admitted over the objection of defense attorneys. Under the judge's order, jurors were not told of Azzam's role with bin Laden and the global jihad, but did hear references to Azzam's work on behalf of Afghanistan's mujahideen. In a video from a 1988 rally in California, the year HLF was founded as the Occupied Land Fund, Azzam is shown urging Palestinians to fight to the death: "O, people of Palestine, it is time for you to pledge death.
Live with self-respect or die honorably between
piercing lances and fluttering flags. The heads
of the spears are stronger than treachery and are
a better healing to the cunning chest of the envious.
What is life? What is life if I don't live it with honor and respect."
For the entire story, please visit the IPT's website.
|
-
On September 23, the Counterterrorism Foundation and New America Foundation held a live panel discussion on Capitol Hill with Peter Bergen, CTB Contributing Experts Evan Kohlmann and Paul Cruickshank, and guest commentator Maajid Nawaz to discuss "The Jihadists' Revolt Against Al Qaeda: Why Some of Al Qaeda’s Old Allies Have Turned Against It." You can view New America's video of that panel, and you can download a transcript, thanks to Assistant Newslink Editor Brett Wallace. Here are excerpts from the panel:
Peter Bergen: "There are two central fronts in the war on terror, Iraq and the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. What happened with Al Qaeda in Iraq, it was an assisted suicide, we helped their suicide and so did the Sunni awakening. They had five problems. First they have terrible leadership. Al Masri who runs AQI is not Zarqawi, Zawahiri or Osama Bin Laden, he is a bad leader. Second is organization. Third is ideological problems, they can’t make compromises. They also have made a lot of enemies such as the 1920’s Brigade. Many of the recruits that have come to Iraq are gone because they commit suicide. The fact that we have seen female suicide attacks is a sign of weakness, not strength.
We know what these groups are against but what are they for? There is no al Qaeda minister of employment, Al Qaeda school, or Al Qaeda social welfare organization. There is not a category of government they have said they are not against, Russia, China, the West, Israel, Shiites and so on. Because of this problem they can’t turn themselves into political movements."
Even Kohlmann: "Arguably over any other issue, the predominant topic of discussion, controversy—and often schism—within the Salafi-Jihadi discourse has revolved around the justifications for deliberately killing other Sunni Muslims, including both innocent civilians and competing mujahideen fighters.
Nowhere else has that debate become more evident and problematic for Salafi-Jihadi leaders than in Iraq, where the insurgency has recently undergone a series of fundamental shifts. First, a wide array of prominent Sunni insurgent factions—including the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI), the 1920 Revolution Brigades, Iraqi Hamas, and Asaeb al-Iraq al-Jihadiya (to name just a few)—have become embroiled in bitter public feuds with Al-Qaida’s “Islamic State of Iraq” (ISI) over the latter’s aggressive insistence that all Sunni insurgent groups join together under the banner of the ISI. The combined impact of this has undeniably had a debilitating impact on the long-term political viability of Al-Qaida and the ISI."
|
-
Prague, September 16, 2008
At the invitation of the Prague Security Studies Institute (PSSI), a think tank for international relations in the Czech Republic, I delivered a lecture on “Jihadist Strategies against Europe: Background, Projections and Options.” The event was co-sponsored by the Brussels-based European Foundation for Democracy, and the forum was attended by PSSI officers, diplomats and NGO members. It is to note that under the forthcoming Czech Presidency, the European Union may be able to take perhaps more daring steps in recognizing the importance of the dissident segments of the Greater Middle East in the process of opposing totalitarian ideologies. In this lecture, part of my second summer European tour, I called on policy makers to focus seriously on a strategic support to dissidents and democracy forces inthe Arab and Muslim world instead of relying exclusively on the so-called hopeless engagement with Jihadist movements. For, as I tried to make the case, findings tells us that in every balanced opportunity when counter Jihadist Muslims engage the Jihadists in a battle of ideas, the counter Jihadists win. And everytime the Jihadists have no challengers from within the Arab and Muslim political culture to contend with, they naturally win.
Following are main excerpts of the lecture
|
-
-
The NEFA Foundation has released the latest edition of its TerrorWatch online video broadcast, which examines the growing problem of Al-Qaida safe havens and terrorist training camps flourishing along the Afghan-Pakistani border, despite the continued efforts of both the U.S. and Pakistani governments. In May 2006, a jihadi media agency in Pakistan known as “Ummah Studios” released a new video production titled “Na Pak Fouj”, documenting clashes with the Pakistani army in Northern Waziristan. The video included lengthy, detailed footage of a terrorist training camp situated somewhere in North Waziristan. As masked fighters pass in front of the camera, a nasheed song plays for viewers, imploring, “Look at the people of Allah, They came out to sacrifice their lives… They came out to shed their blood… No worry for home, no worry for land, no worry for lives they have. They are wise people who live in fear of Allah… Those who fight against the infidels are the mujahideen. Their dreams have come true.” Later, an unidentified narrator explains in Urdu: “In front of your eyes, these selected Muslim youths are preparing for jihad. Allah said, ‘Prepare to the greatest extent possible against the infidels.’ The Prophet said, ‘The power is in the shooting’—the power is in the shooting, the power is in the shooting… Today, [our enemies] are insulting the Quran. Today, they are insulting our Prophet Mohammed, and they kill Muslims wherever they want… So, according to the orders of Allah, it is our duty to prepare ourselves against the infidels and our responsibility… May Allah increase the passion for our religion among the Muslim youth, and may he grant us the strength to prepare ourselves to defend his religion.” To underline the purpose of the training offered at the camp, one of the masked recruits is shown sitting amongst his comrades and singing by himself in Urdu: “O’ infidels of the East and West, we have plans for you. We all must die, life is too short. You (Muslims) must act now, we are being oppressed. O’ soldiers of Islam, come here for jihad. O’ soldiers of Islam, come here for jihad.”
The NEFA Foundation has also released a new report by NEFA Senior Analyst Steve Merley titled "The Federation of Islamic Organizations in Europe." The Federation of Islamic Organizations in Europe (FIOE) claims to be an independent organization representing the interests of Muslims in Europe. In reality, the FIOE is an umbrella group that comprises the global Muslim Brotherhood in Europe. Strong links connect FIOE's leadership central institutions and member organizations to the Brotherhood, as well as to Saudi Arabia. Funding for the FIOE is derived largely from Gulf sources, including some of the ruling families of the United Arab Emirates. The FIOE has strong ties to Hamas and Hamas fund-raising organizations, and some FIOE member organizations show evidence of links with Al-Qaida. The FIOE recently opened a headquarters office in Brussels and has had some success in positioning itself as a “dialog partner” for the EU and other important institutions.
|
-
The concerted effort by the United States and most of the European Union, along with a few countries in Latin America, are gradually cutting off the operational areas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).
Yesterday's OFAC designation of eight members of the FARC's international delegation is another step in that direction. The FARC is a designated terrorist organization by the U.S. and the EU.
These International Commission members represent the FARC in Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Panama, Mexico, and Canada.
As I wrote in this paper for the NEFA Foundation, the FARC's international structure has been one of the most underestimated elements of support for the terrorist organization.
Until recently the conventional wisdom was that the FARC, historically a rural-based insurgency with little regard for international opinion, had not successfully developed an international support network. The computer documents taken from the camp of Raúl Reyes, the senior FARC commander killed in Ecuador March 1, show a far different reality.
Not only is there a structure that was being nurtured and financed by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, able to reach out to weapons traffickers in Australia and Belarus, but the FARC has successfully set up front groups across Latin America and has established a significant presence in Europe. My full blog is here.
|
-
Yesterday, the Australian Institute of Criminology, a research and knowledge center on crime and justice, released a report, "Money laundering risks of prepaid stored value cards," which identifies "the misuse of prepaid stored value cards to keep the proceeds of crime and move them across borders without alerting law enforcement and financial intelligence units." The report adds to the growing body of concern among governmental officials worldwide over the use by criminals and terrorists of stored value instruments (SVIs), of which "hard cards" are but a subset. Almost three years ago, the first "U.S. Money Laundering Threat Assessment" described SVIs as "an emerging cash alternative for both legitimate consumers and money launderers alike." Jonathan Winer wrote in January 2007 of the first BSA enforcement action against a financial institution for failing to notice a pattern of money laundering using phone cards. This year, the 2008 edition of the International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released by the State Department, included a new section on the threat of mobile payments. Numerous officials across the U.S. government, including the Pentagon's counterinsurgency and special operations units, are devoting increased time and attention to understanding the technologies involved and to developing recognition and risk mitigation strategies. Several high-level briefings have been held this year with experts from financial institutions and information technology firms, with the results and "lessons learned" communicated back through the commands and into the field, including the provision of new technology to infantry to read hard cards captured from terrorists.
The technologies available for storing value are expanding far ahead of international regulators' abilities. They include smart cards and specialized chips in cell phones, but the value need not be stored in a physical medium; instead, the card or chip could access a secure account on the internet (a "cloud account"). Current U.S. banking regulations govern only those stored value instruments provided by financial institutions and already subject to BSA/Patriot Act regulation, while SVIs issued during the course of business . But numerous non-financial institutions are also offering stored value cards as a means of paying for goods and services. Stephen Spoonamore, an expert on the technology side of the issue, tracks criminal enforcement cases in which SVIs have been captured during an arrest and provided several examples. In one case this year, suspects arrested in a raid in Brooklyn had purchased $250-300,000 in cards to personally carry money home to friends and relatives and avoid the cash reporting requirement at the border. In 2007, drug-related raids in the Las Vegas area resulted in the seizure of over 18,400 cards with a total value of approximately $6.5 million. Many of the cards were issued by retailers, which are not subject to BSA/Patriot Act regulation because they're not "financial institutions."
The market for stored value instruments is huge; the Australian report estimates gift card volume alone at $87 billion globally this year. I've already written on the need to update the BSA and Title III of the Patriot Act in new legislation, and this is one area which was almost unknown to the Congress and regulators in 2001. Spoonamore suggests several "tech fixes" which could reduce the risk of improper use without further legislation. The next Administration and Congress should examine this issue in detail and consider mandating a new cost-effective and risk-based regulatory structure over all SVIs.
|
-
DALLAS - A turf war between competing U.S.-based Palestinian charities in 1994 was settled by Mousa Abu Marzook, a Hamas leader who serves as its deputy political director.
In testimony Tuesday, jurors in the Hamas-support trial of five former officials at the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF) heard FBI recordings showing Marzook sided with the foundation over a Mississippi-based educational fund. HLF, prosecutors say, then became the designated fundraising arm for Hamas in the United States.
The first attempt to settle the dispute between the Texas-based HLF and the Al Aqsa Education Fund first was handled by the Palestine Committee, a group created by the Muslim Brotherhood in the U.S. to help Hamas. It included HLF, the Islamic Association for Palestine (IAP) and a think tank called the United Association for Studies and Research (UASR). Marzook had personal and financial ties with all three entities.
But Abdelhaleem Ashqar felt that HLF wasn't sending enough money to help the cause and arranged for Sheik Jamil Hamami, then a Hamas leader, to come to the U.S. in 1993 for fundraisers. HLF balked. Ashqar had an organization called the Al Aqsa Education Fund that was organizing Hamami's visit.
Defendant Shukri Abu Baker, HLF's former executive director, argued that letting Ashqar go unchecked in fundraising would set a precedent that could cripple HLF: "Everyone who has an organization was calling us and, ‘We want to come to your end. We want you to do a program for us. I want to raise money for our organization'. Thus, the Foundation would turn into an agency and a mere station through which people come here, raise money and go back home."
Hamas official Mohammed Siam told Ashqar that the Palestine Committee discussed the issue in a February 1994 meeting: "Sheik Jamil's program will continue as planned previously by A1 Aqsa Fund, but under the supervision of the Holy Land Fund, HLF, whereby collected donations will be forwarded to the HLF, Spending these funds will be decided between the HLF and Sheik Jamil."
Ashqar resisted, drawing a visit from Siam and Hamami. FBI agents learned of the meeting and recorded it. The men brought a letter from Marzook with instructions for Ashqar to back off: "My honorable brother, I hope that you suspend your activity until I arrive in America and work on solving the disagreement. Sheik Jamil is to join the program of your brothers and I have written to him accordingly."
For the entire story, visit the IPT's website.
|
-
I just wrote a piece for the Middle East Times looking at how Iran has been encircling the Gulf.
You can read it in full here.
Here is an excerpt:
Qatar-based Muslim Brotherhood leader Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi recently set off a hot controversy. The influential Sunni cleric, a regular on Al-Jazeera, stated that "Shiites are heretics and their danger comes from their attempts to invade Sunni society." Interestingly enough this is far from just a religious debate, because it actually encompasses the fear that Sunni Gulf states feel regarding Shiite Iran's expansion.
In the context of a very tensed geopolitical situation in the Gulf, Qaradawi warned: "We should protect Sunni society from the Shiite invasion…. I am only trying to preempt the threat before it gets worse. If we let Shiites penetrate Sunni societies, the outcome won't be praiseworthy. The presence of Shiites in Iraq and Lebanon is the best evidence of instability."
This declaration is clearly aimed at Iran's threat to the region. While numerous examples of Iran's strategy of penetration of Gulf societies have surfaced in the past few years, new reports are quite worrisome.
Just two weeks ago, Adel al-Assadi, the former Iranian ambassador to the UAE told Gulf News that since 1979 Iran has assembled a force of infiltrators and collaborators who are ready to destabilize the region when needed.
Assadi specifically pointed out the danger represented by elements trained by Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who are in a sleeper mode until they are activated by Tehran.
|
|
|
|